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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec

3 – 2 Full time

10′M. Chretien
14′I. Conde
35′K. Ferdinand
43′L. Mousset
45′Matisse Chretien
45′Abzi Diyaeddine
46′Z. FernandezE. Awonongbadje
63′I. CondeN. Santos
66′L. MoussetT. Campbell
72′E. Bah
73′D. AbziT. Lebeuf
73′A. SissokoS. Mlah
73′D. ChoiniereA. Biello
77′N. MezquidaB. Lee
84′M. AmissiP. Gee
84′D. PecileA. Traore
87′Thomas Lebeuf

Willoughby Community Park Stadium

Vancouver FC 48%
Draw 24%
Supra du Quebec 28%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

7 Shots 15
2 Shots on target 5
45 Possession % 55
2 Corners 7
6 Fouls 12
3 Saves 0
372 Accurate passes 478

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVancouver FCDrawSupra du Quebec
Model50.1%26.4%23.5%
Market47.4%23.5%29.1%
Final48.1%24.3%27.7%
Edge+2.7%+2.8%-5.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Vancouver FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.69 vs 1.10.
  • The market prices Vancouver FC below the model: +2.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vancouver FC ↓ / Supra du Quebe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 9% 13% 2 9% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 78%
3+ goals 53%
No goals 7%

Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec expected goals

Vancouver FC 1.69
Supra du Quebec 1.10

Total expected goals: 2.79

Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec attack and defence ratings

Vancouver FC

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 0.87 -13%

Supra du Quebec

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 1.13 +13%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec: result vs prediction

Vancouver FC 3 – 2 Supra du Quebec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Vancouver FC 48.1% 2.08 +2.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 52.7% 1.90 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.5% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 75.7% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.9% 2.00 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vancouver FC48.1%
Draw24.3%
Supra du Quebec27.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.552.7%
Under 2.547.3%
Both teams to scoreYes55.5%
No44.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)72.3%
12 (either side)75.7%
X2 (draw or away)51.9%
Handicap -1Vancouver FC win27.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.4%
Loss49.9%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.6%
2-19.7%
1-09.3%

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec stats

Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec recent form

newest first
Vancouver FC LLLDWW
Supra du Quebec WDLLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vancouver FC and Supra du Quebec going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vancouver FC record

  • They have won 8 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 20 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Supra du Quebec record

  • They have won 6 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game on the road against 1.1 at home.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 19 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Vancouver FC wins 1Draws 0Supra du Quebec wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-17Supra du QuebecVancouver FCCanadian Premier League1-5
2026-05-23Vancouver FCSupra du QuebecCanadian Premier League1-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vancouver FC vs Supra du Quebec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 47.4%, draw 23.5%, away 29.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.90 3.90 3.14
Bet365 1.95 3.70 3.10
BetVictor 1.87 3.75 3.40
Marathonbet 1.88 3.90 3.08
Pinnacle 1.90 4.14 3.07
William Hill 1.91 3.50 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.90 ▼ -0.17
X 3.83 ▲ +0.25
2 3.10 ▲ +0.23

4 snapshots recorded, from .