Canadian Premier League
·
Full time
·Group Stage
York United
vs
Vancouver FC
3 – 1 Full time
| 27′ | Tomasz Noah Skublak | ||
| 39′ | Luca accettola | ||
| 45′ | K. ProctorParis Gee | ||
| 50′ | Tomasz Noah Skublak | ||
| 56′ | Callum Irving | ||
| 58′ | elage bah | ||
| 59′ | Nicolás MezquidaLuis Toomey | ||
| 62′ | Luca accettolaKevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke | ||
| 72′ | elage bah | ||
| 73′ | Kembo·KibatoJuan Córdova | ||
| 77′ | Lys MoussetAboubacar Traore | ||
| 77′ | Marcello PolisiBenjamin Lee | ||
| 78′ | Kevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke | ||
| 83′ | morey donerVitor Lucas De Araujo | ||
| 83′ | Damiano PecileAbdoulaye·Ouattara | ||
| 84′ | Tomasz Noah SkublakSebastian Gonzales | ||
| 84′ | Jorge Ariel Almagro AlbánMax Ferrari | ||
| 90′ | Ollie BassettRaúl López |
York United
34%
Draw
25%
Vancouver FC
41%
Match stats
| 13 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 5 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 57 | Possession % | 43 |
| 4 | Corners | 8 |
| 9 | Fouls | 10 |
| 1 | Offsides | 2 |
| 2 | Saves | 3 |
| 497 | Accurate passes | 354 |
York United vs Vancouver FC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York United vs Vancouver FC
| Probability | York United | Draw | Vancouver FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 27.7% | 24.0% | 48.4% |
| Market | 35.8% | 25.2% | 38.9% |
| Final | 33.8% | 24.9% | 41.3% |
| Edge | -8.2% | -1.2% | +9.4% |
Why Vancouver FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.93 vs 1.43.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vancouver FC below the model: +9.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
96%
2+ goals
86%
3+ goals
65%
No goals
4%
York United and Vancouver FC expected goals
York United
1.43
Vancouver FC
1.93
Total expected goals: 3.37
York United and Vancouver FC attack and defence ratings
York United
Attack
0.94 -6%
Defence
1.45 +45%
Vancouver FC
Attack
1.02 +2%
Defence
0.90 -10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
York United vs Vancouver FC: result vs prediction
York United 3 – 1 Vancouver FC
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Before and after this match
York United vs Vancouver FC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vancouver FC | 41.3% | 2.42 | +9.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% | 1.53 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.1% | 1.51 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.1% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.6% | 1.94 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York United | 33.8% |
| Draw | 24.9% | |
| Vancouver FC | 41.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 34.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.1% |
| No | 33.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 58.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vancouver FC win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 51.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.2% | |
| 2-1 | 6.9% |
York United vs Vancouver FC stats
York United and Vancouver FC recent form
| York United |
DDLDWD |
| Vancouver FC |
WLLLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York United and Vancouver FC going into this match
York United record
- They have won 4 of their 19 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
Vancouver FC record
- They have won 9 of their 21 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 21 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 21 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United vs Vancouver FC head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6York United wins
2Draws
2Vancouver FC wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Vancouver FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2026-04-19 | York United | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-09-21 | Vancouver FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | York United | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | York United | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
| 2025-04-06 | Vancouver FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-07 | Vancouver FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-20 | Vancouver FC | York United | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-09 | York United | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-04-26 | York United | Vancouver FC | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
York United vs Vancouver FC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 25.2%, away 38.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.48 | 3.78 | 2.25 |
| Bet365 | 2.55 | 3.30 | 2.38 |
| BetVictor | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.40 |
| Betano | 2.67 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
| Betfair | 2.50 | 3.60 | 2.38 |
| Marathonbet | 2.48 | 3.78 | 2.25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.51 | 4.02 | 2.25 |
| SBO | 2.46 | 3.07 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
2.50 ▲ +0.31
X
3.55 ▼ -0.05
2
2.30 ▼ -0.36
4 snapshots recorded, from .