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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United

4 – 1 Full time

3′Raúl López
9′I. Johnston
21′Raúl López
24′Lorenzo Callegari
34′I. Johnston
45′Raúl LópezBeni Badibanga
49′Kembo·Kibato
65′Kareem Sow
71′Luca accettolaSebastian Gonzales
71′Jorge Ariel Almagro AlbánMax Ferrari
71′Miguel Arilla GuinotNelson Pierre
72′Luke Singh
73′Jason Bahamboula
76′Jefferson Alphonse
79′Lorenzo Callegari
80′Jason BahamboulaS. Zitman
80′Kareem SowLiam MacKenzie
81′Luke SinghJuan Córdova
84′Oswaldo Leon
88′Lucas OlguinFrancesco Troisi
88′I. JohnstonAndre Rampersad

Wanderers Grounds, Halifax

HFX Wanderers FC 52%
Draw 24%
York United 25%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 24
8 Shots on target 6
40 Possession % 60
0 Corners 9
11 Fouls 12
3 Offsides 0
5 Saves 4
312 Accurate passes 468

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: HFX Wanderers FC vs York United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityHFX Wanderers FCDrawYork United
Model56.4%20.1%23.5%
Market50.0%24.8%25.2%
Final51.6%23.6%24.8%
Edge+6.4%-4.7%-1.8%

Confidence: Low

Why HFX Wanderers FC

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.49 vs 1.62.
  • The market prices HFX Wanderers FC below the model: +6.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

HFX Wanderers ↓ / York United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 5% 2 5% 8% 7% 3 4% 7% 6% 4+ 5% 8% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 92%
3+ goals 78%
No goals 2%

HFX Wanderers FC and York United expected goals

HFX Wanderers FC 2.49
York United 1.62

Total expected goals: 4.11

HFX Wanderers FC and York United attack and defence ratings

HFX Wanderers FC

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.17 +17%

York United

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.40 +40%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United: result vs prediction

HFX Wanderers FC 4 – 1 York United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 HFX Wanderers FC 51.6% 1.94 +6.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 77.7% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score Yes 74.1% 1.35 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.4% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.9% 2.28 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2HFX Wanderers FC51.6%
Draw23.6%
York United24.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.577.7%
Under 2.522.3%
Both teams to scoreYes74.1%
No25.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.2%
12 (either side)76.4%
X2 (draw or away)48.4%
Handicap -1HFX Wanderers FC win36.6%
Push (exactly one goal)19.5%
Loss43.9%
Correct score (top 3)2-18.3%
1-17.3%
3-16.9%

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United stats

HFX Wanderers FC and York United recent form

newest first
HFX Wanderers FC WLLWLL
York United WDDLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

HFX Wanderers FC and York United going into this match

league record before kick-off

HFX Wanderers FC record

  • They have won 6 of their 22 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 22 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 22 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York United record

  • They have won 5 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4HFX Wanderers FC wins 4Draws 2York United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-16York UnitedHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League4-3
2026-05-23HFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League1-1
2026-04-11York UnitedHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League2-2
2025-10-22HFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-2
2025-10-04HFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League1-1
2025-09-01HFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League4-0
2025-05-31York UnitedHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-04-13York UnitedHFX Wanderers FCCanadian Premier League1-2
2024-10-19HFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-1
2024-09-02HFX Wanderers FCYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

HFX Wanderers FC vs York United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.0%, draw 24.8%, away 25.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.77 3.55 3.82
Bet365 1.80 3.40 3.70
BetVictor 1.83 3.75 3.50
Betano 1.90 3.75 3.60
Betfair 1.85 3.80 3.30
Marathonbet 1.75 3.55 3.72
Pinnacle 1.83 3.72 3.59
William Hill 1.80 3.60 3.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.81 ▲ +0.13
X 3.66 ▲ +0.01
2 3.59 ▼ -0.58

4 snapshots recorded, from .