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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

Atlético Ottawa vs York United

2 – 1 Full time

TD Place Stadium

Atlético Ottawa 55%
Draw 22%
York United 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Atlético Ottawa vs York United overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Ottawa vs York United

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlético OttawaDrawYork United
Model71.6%15.5%12.9%
Market49.1%23.8%27.1%
Final54.7%21.7%23.6%
Edge+22.6%-8.4%-14.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Atlético Ottawa

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.05 vs 1.32.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Atlético Ottawa below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlético Ottaw ↓ / York United → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 2 8% 3 8% 4+ 10% 13% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 98%
2+ goals 94%
3+ goals 81%
No goals 2%

Atlético Ottawa and York United expected goals

Atlético Ottawa 3.05
York United 1.32

Total expected goals: 4.37

Atlético Ottawa and York United attack and defence ratings

Atlético Ottawa

Attack 1.25 +25%
Defence 1.12 +12%

York United

Attack 0.90 -10%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlético Ottawa vs York United: result vs prediction

Atlético Ottawa 2 – 1 York United

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Atlético Ottawa vs York United markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Atlético Ottawa 54.7% 1.83 +22.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 81.1% 1.23 — —
Both teams to score Yes 70.3% 1.42 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.3% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Atlético Ottawa win 53.2% 1.88 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlético Ottawa54.7%
Draw21.7%
York United23.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.581.1%
Under 2.518.9%
Both teams to scoreYes70.3%
No29.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)76.4%
12 (either side)78.3%
X2 (draw or away)45.3%
Handicap -1Atlético Ottawa win53.2%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss28.4%
Correct score (top 3)3-17.9%
2-17.8%
4-16.0%

Atlético Ottawa vs York United stats

Atlético Ottawa and York United recent form

newest first
Atlético Ottawa LWWWLW
York United DWDLLD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlético Ottawa and York United going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlético Ottawa record

  • They have won 10 of their 20 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
  • They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 20 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 57% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York United record

  • They have won 4 of their 18 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.

Atlético Ottawa vs York United head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Atlético Ottawa wins 5Draws 2York United wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-17Atlético OttawaYork UnitedCanadian Premier League1-1
2026-05-01York UnitedAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League4-1
2025-09-14York UnitedAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-2
2025-08-03Atlético OttawaYork UnitedCanadian Premier League0-0
2025-07-08York UnitedAtlético OttawaCanadian Championship3-4
2025-06-22York UnitedAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League0-0
2025-06-11Atlético OttawaYork UnitedCanadian Championship2-1
2025-04-19Atlético OttawaYork UnitedCanadian Premier League3-2
2024-10-27Atlético OttawaYork UnitedCanadian Premier League2-2
2024-10-06York UnitedAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlético Ottawa vs York United odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 49.1%, draw 23.8%, away 27.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.86 3.90 3.40
1xBet 1.83 3.82 3.41
Bet365 1.95 3.60 3.20
BetVictor 1.85 3.80 3.40
Betano 1.87 4.10 3.45
Betfair 1.80 3.90 3.50
Dafabet 1.87 4.20 3.35
Marathonbet 1.81 3.82 3.35
Pinnacle 1.70 3.86 3.06
Superbet 1.90 4.10 3.35
Unibet 1.90 3.75 3.40
William Hill 1.95 3.60 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.87 ▲ +0.01
X 3.84 ▲ +0.04
2 3.38 ▼ -0.02

2 snapshots recorded, from .