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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

York United vs Supra du Quebec

1 – 2 Full time

7′Sean Rea
7′Tomasz Noah Skublak
8′Keesean FerdinandEliakim Matthieu Awonongbadje
17′Loic Adrien Kwemi
26′Juan Córdova
37′Loic Adrien Kwemi
45′Frank SturingKembo·Kibato
45′Sebastian GonzalesBeni Badibanga
57′Beni Badibanga
60′Abzi Diyaeddine
64′Sean ReaS. Mlah
64′Omar El KalkouliClement Bayiha
74′Ibrahim CondeNoah Lauren Trudel dos Santos
83′Carlos Guzman
90′Raúl López

York Lions Stadium

York United 39%
Draw 23%
Supra du Quebec 38%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

17 Shots 17
2 Shots on target 7
55 Possession % 45
5 Corners 3
13 Fouls 10
0 Offsides 1
5 Saves 1
338 Accurate passes 283

York United vs Supra du Quebec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: York United vs Supra du Quebec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityYork UnitedDrawSupra du Quebec
Model50.6%19.4%29.9%
Market35.0%24.7%40.3%
Final38.9%23.4%37.7%
Edge+15.7%-5.3%-10.4%

Confidence: Low

Why York United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.63 vs 2.04.
  • The market prices York United below the model: +15.7 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

York United ↓ / Supra du Quebe → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 5% 2 7% 7% 5% 4% 3 6% 6% 4% 4+ 7% 7% 5% 4%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 95%
3+ goals 84%
No goals 1%

York United and Supra du Quebec expected goals

York United 2.63
Supra du Quebec 2.04

Total expected goals: 4.67

York United and Supra du Quebec attack and defence ratings

York United

Attack 1.27 +27%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Supra du Quebec

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.20 +20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

York United vs Supra du Quebec: result vs prediction

York United 1 – 2 Supra du Quebec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

York United vs Supra du Quebec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 York United 38.9% 2.57 +15.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 84.5% 1.18 — —
Both teams to score Yes 81.2% 1.23 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 76.6% 1.31 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.4% 2.03 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2York United38.9%
Draw23.4%
Supra du Quebec37.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.584.5%
Under 2.515.5%
Both teams to scoreYes81.2%
No18.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)62.3%
12 (either side)76.6%
X2 (draw or away)61.1%
Handicap -1York United win32.7%
Push (exactly one goal)18.0%
Loss49.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-26.8%
2-16.6%
3-25.9%

York United vs Supra du Quebec stats

York United and Supra du Quebec recent form

newest first
York United WLDLWD
Supra du Quebec WLWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

York United and Supra du Quebec going into this match

league record before kick-off

York United record

  • They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.

Supra du Quebec record

  • They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

York United vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0York United wins 1Draws 1Supra du Quebec wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-23York UnitedSupra du QuebecCanadian Premier League1-1
2026-05-29Supra du QuebecYork UnitedCanadian Premier League3-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

York United vs Supra du Quebec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.0%, draw 24.7%, away 40.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.52 3.54 2.26
Bet365 2.55 3.70 2.30
BetVictor 2.63 3.70 2.25
Betano 2.80 3.75 2.25
Betfair 2.60 3.80 2.20
Marathonbet 2.52 3.54 2.26
Pinnacle 2.63 3.66 2.28
William Hill 2.60 3.30 2.25

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.60 ▼ -0.15
X 3.68 ▲ +0.01
2 2.25 ▲ +0.10

3 snapshots recorded, from .