Forge
vs
York United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Forge
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Forge vs York United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Forge vs York United
| Probability | Forge | Draw | York United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.9% | 17.1% | 14.0% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 68.9% | 17.1% | 14.0% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Forge
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.78 vs 1.24.
Forge vs York United match preview
Forge faces York United in the Canadian Premier League on October 12, 2026. The model indicates a strong likelihood of a Forge victory at 64%, with a 19% chance of a draw and an 18% probability for York United to win. The expected goals suggest Forge could score 2.64 while York United is projected at 1.38. The most likely scoreline is 2-1, occurring at a 9% probability, with a high chance of over 2.5 goals at 76% and both teams scoring at 70%.
In terms of recent form, Forge has recorded three draws, one win, and one loss in their last five matches, while York United has two wins, two draws, and one loss. Historically, in their last ten encounters, Forge has dominated with six wins and four draws, leaving York United without a win. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating that the probabilities are model-based.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Forge and York United expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.02
Forge and York United attack and defence ratings
Forge
York United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
Forge vs York United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 68.9% | 1.45 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 49.3% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 68.9% |
| Draw | 17.1% | |
| York United | 14.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.4% |
| No | 32.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 49.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 31.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Forge vs York United stats
Forge and York United recent form
| Forge |
WDDDWD |
| York United |
LWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Forge and York United season so far
Forge record
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Forge vs York United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-07-26 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2026-06-07 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-29 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-28 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-24 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-01 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.