Canadian Premier League
·
Full time
·Group Stage
Forge
vs
York United
5 – 0 Full time
| 4′ | Noah Jensen | ||
| 9′ | Nana Ampomah | ||
| 11′ | Nana AmpomahBen Paton | ||
| 28′ | Antoine Batisse | ||
| 45′ | Oswaldo LeonSebastian Gonzales | ||
| 45′ | Juan CórdovaCarlos Guzman | ||
| 45′ | Jorge Ariel Almagro AlbánKevonte Tyrique Jaaziah Clarke | ||
| 46′ | Marko Jevremović | ||
| 67′ | Lucas CavalliniIsmael Oketokoun Hassane | ||
| 67′ | Rezart RamaLevonte Johnson | ||
| 67′ | Antoine Batisseaghilas sadek | ||
| 68′ | Kembo·KibatoShola Jimoh | ||
| 73′ | Anthony Aromatario | ||
| 83′ | Anthony AromatarioTristan Borges | ||
| 88′ | Beni BadibangaLuca accettola | ||
| 89′ | Ben Paton |
Forge
68%
Draw
18%
York United
14%
Match stats
| 17 | Shots | 13 |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 45 | Possession % | 55 |
| 5 | Corners | 8 |
| 21 | Fouls | 12 |
| 1 | Offsides | 1 |
| 3 | Saves | 3 |
| 303 | Accurate passes | 400 |
Forge vs York United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Forge vs York United
| Probability | Forge | Draw | York United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.6% | 17.2% | 14.2% |
| Market | 67.4% | 18.7% | 13.9% |
| Final | 67.7% | 18.3% | 14.0% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.4% | +0.1% |
Why Forge
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.77 vs 1.25.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
98%
2+ goals
92%
3+ goals
76%
No goals
2%
Forge and York United expected goals
Forge
2.77
York United
1.25
Total expected goals: 4.02
Forge and York United attack and defence ratings
Forge
Attack
1.15 +15%
Defence
0.77 -23%
York United
Attack
1.23 +23%
Defence
1.40 +40%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Forge vs York United: result vs prediction
Forge 5 – 0 York United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Before and after this match
Forge vs York United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 67.7% | 1.48 | +0.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 49.0% | 2.04 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 67.7% |
| Draw | 18.3% | |
| York United | 14.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 67.5% |
| No | 32.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 86.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 32.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 49.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 3-1 | 8.0% | |
| 2-0 | 6.9% |
Forge vs York United stats
Forge and York United recent form
| Forge |
WDDDWD |
| York United |
LWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Forge and York United going into this match
Forge record
- They have won 15 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United record
- They have won 6 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Forge vs York United head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
6Forge wins
4Draws
0York United wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-07-26 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-3 |
| 2026-06-07 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-4 |
| 2025-10-18 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-09 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-06-29 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-27 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-09-28 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2024-08-24 | York United | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2024-06-01 | Forge | York United | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Forge vs York United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 67.4%, draw 18.7%, away 13.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.34 | 4.55 | 6.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.38 | 4.75 | 6.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Betano | 1.40 | 5.00 | 6.50 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.38 | 5.20 | 6.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.33 | 4.55 | 6.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.37 | 4.97 | 6.26 |
| SBO | 1.31 | 4.46 | 5.42 |
| William Hill | 1.36 | 4.40 | 6.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.35 ▼ -0.01
X
4.86 ▼ -0.04
2
6.53 ▼ -0.17
4 snapshots recorded, from .