Supra du Quebec
vs
York United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Supra du Quebec
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
Supra du Quebec vs York United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Supra du Quebec vs York United
| Probability | Supra du Quebec | Draw | York United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.8% | 19.3% | 25.9% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 54.8% | 19.3% | 25.9% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Supra du Quebec
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.66 vs 1.85.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Supra du Quebec vs York United match preview
Supra du Quebec enters this match with a 55% probability of winning, while York United has a 26% chance. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Supra du Quebec, with an expected goals tally of 2.66 for them and 1.85 for York United. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is high at 83%, and both teams scoring is projected at 79%.
In terms of recent form, Supra du Quebec has recorded two wins and four losses in their last six matches, while York United has three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same timeframe. The head-to-head results favor Supra du Quebec, with two wins and one draw in their last three encounters against York United, who have yet to secure a victory in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Supra du Quebec and York United expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.51
Supra du Quebec and York United attack and defence ratings
Supra du Quebec
York United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
Supra du Quebec vs York United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.7% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.9% | 1.27 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 80.7% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.2% | 2.21 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 54.8% |
| Draw | 19.3% | |
| York United | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 82.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 17.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 78.9% |
| No | 21.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 80.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 45.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Supra du Quebec win | 36.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.6% | |
| Loss | 45.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 7.2% |
| 2-2 | 6.7% | |
| 3-1 | 6.4% |
Supra du Quebec vs York United stats
Supra du Quebec and York United recent form
| Supra du Quebec |
WWLWLL |
| York United |
LWLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Supra du Quebec and York United season so far
Supra du Quebec record
- They have won 9 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.0 on the road.
Supra du Quebec vs York United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-07 | York United | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-08-23 | York United | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Supra du Quebec | York United | Canadian Premier League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.