York United
vs
Atlético Ottawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atlético Ottawa
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.61.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atlético Ottawa is the favourite, not a value bet.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: York United vs Atlético Ottawa
| Probability | York United | Draw | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 30.5% | 23.2% | 46.3% |
| Market | 31.0% | 22.4% | 46.6% |
| Final | 30.9% | 22.6% | 46.5% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +0.2% | -0.1% |
Why Atlético Ottawa
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.01 vs 1.61.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.01, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.5% per unit staked (our 46.5% × 2.01 − 1).
York United vs Atlético Ottawa match preview
York United faces Atlético Ottawa in a Canadian Premier League matchup with kickoff scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities indicate a 30% chance of a York United victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 46% chance for Atlético Ottawa to win. The expected goals are 1.61 for York United and 2.01 for Atlético Ottawa, suggesting a competitive encounter.
Recent form shows York United struggling with three consecutive losses followed by a win, a loss, and a draw. In contrast, Atlético Ottawa has a mixed record, winning three of their last six matches. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 70% chance of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring. In their last 10 encounters, York United has secured 1 win, while Atlético Ottawa has 4 wins and 5 draws.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
York United and Atlético Ottawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.62
York United and Atlético Ottawa attack and defence ratings
York United
Atlético Ottawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Cavalry FC — team news & stats
- Supra du Quebec vs York United
- Vancouver FC v HFX Wanderers FC — match page
- Atlético Ottawa vs Forge — team news & stats
- Cavalry FC vs Pacific FC
- Cavalry FC v Vancouver FC — match page
- HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec — team news & stats
- Pacific FC vs Forge
Before and after this match
York United vs Atlético Ottawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Ottawa | 46.5% | 2.15 | -0.1% | 2.01 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% | 1.43 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | York United | 30.9% |
| Draw | 22.6% | |
| Atlético Ottawa | 46.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 70.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 29.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 70.2% |
| No | 29.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 53.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 69.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atlético Ottawa win | 26.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.4% | |
| Loss | 53.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 1-2 | 8.7% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
York United vs Atlético Ottawa stats
York United and Atlético Ottawa recent form
| York United |
LLLWLD |
| Atlético Ottawa |
LWWWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
York United and Atlético Ottawa season so far
York United record
- They have won 6 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
Atlético Ottawa record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Atlético Ottawa | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-07-17 | Atlético Ottawa | York United | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-05-01 | York United | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 4-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | York United | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-03 | Atlético Ottawa | York United | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-07-08 | York United | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Championship | 3-4 |
| 2025-06-22 | York United | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-11 | Atlético Ottawa | York United | Canadian Championship | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | Atlético Ottawa | York United | Canadian Premier League | 3-2 |
| 2024-10-27 | Atlético Ottawa | York United | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
York United vs Atlético Ottawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.0%, draw 22.4%, away 46.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.91 | 4.05 | 1.93 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.80 | 1.91 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 4.00 | 1.95 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 4.10 | 2.00 |
| Betfair | 2.90 | 4.00 | 1.91 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 4.20 | 2.01 |
| Marathonbet | 2.85 | 4.05 | 1.91 |
| Pinnacle | 2.93 | 4.10 | 1.97 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.70 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .