Garuda Lions
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Canadian Premier League · Full time ·Group Stage

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge

1 – 2 Full time

TD Place Stadium, Ottawa

Atlético Ottawa 20%
Draw 23%
Forge 57%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAtlético OttawaDrawForge
Model27.4%27.6%45.0%
Market17.2%22.1%60.8%
Final19.7%23.5%56.8%
Edge+10.2%+5.5%-15.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Forge

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.16.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Atlético Ottaw ↓ / Forge → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 8% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Atlético Ottawa and Forge expected goals

Atlético Ottawa 1.16
Forge 1.55

Total expected goals: 2.71

Atlético Ottawa and Forge attack and defence ratings

Atlético Ottawa

Attack 0.97 -3%
Defence 0.89 -11%

Forge

Attack 1.32 +32%
Defence 0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge: result vs prediction

Atlético Ottawa 1 – 2 Forge

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Before and after this match

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Forge 56.8% 1.76 -15.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.9% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.3% 1.81 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 80.3% 1.25 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.0% 1.82 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Atlético Ottawa19.7%
Draw23.5%
Forge56.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
Both teams to scoreYes55.3%
No44.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)43.2%
12 (either side)76.5%
X2 (draw or away)80.3%
Handicap -1Forge win23.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss55.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.2%
1-29.3%
0-19.1%

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge stats

Atlético Ottawa and Forge recent form

newest first
Atlético Ottawa WWWLLD
Forge WWDDDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Atlético Ottawa and Forge going into this match

league record before kick-off

Atlético Ottawa record

  • They have won 13 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • They have kept 6 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 4 penalties (50%).
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Forge record

  • They have won 16 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 26 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 4 of 26 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Atlético Ottawa wins 3Draws 4Forge wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-09-12ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League3-0
2026-05-24Atlético OttawaForgeCanadian Premier League2-1
2026-04-04ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-10-26ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-2
2025-09-21Atlético OttawaForgeCanadian Premier League1-1
2025-08-17ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-0
2025-07-12Atlético OttawaForgeCanadian Premier League1-1
2025-05-13ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League2-2
2024-11-02ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League1-0
2024-10-12ForgeAtlético OttawaCanadian Premier League0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Atlético Ottawa vs Forge odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 18.5%, draw 23.4%, away 58.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 5.55 4.10 1.46
Bet365 4.20 3.60 1.65
BetVictor 5.25 4.20 1.50
Betano 3.80 3.75 1.85
Betfair 3.75 3.80 1.75
Dafabet 3.90 3.80 1.82
Marathonbet 5.30 4.10 1.45
Pinnacle 5.47 4.31 1.48
William Hill 4.80 3.80 1.53

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 5.28 ▲ +1.53
X 4.10 ▲ +0.43
2 1.49 ▼ -0.31

4 snapshots recorded, from .