Atlético Ottawa
vs
Forge
Garuda Lions Prediction: Forge
0 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.14.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atlético Ottawa vs Forge
| Probability | Atlético Ottawa | Draw | Forge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 26.8% | 27.7% | 45.6% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 26.8% | 27.7% | 45.6% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Forge
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.14.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge match preview
Atlético Ottawa faces Forge in a Canadian Premier League matchup with kickoff set for November 1, 2026. According to our model, Forge holds a 46% probability of winning, while Atlético Ottawa has a 27% chance, and a draw stands at 28%. The expected goals for Atlético Ottawa are 1.14, compared to Forge's 1.55, indicating a potential advantage for the visitors. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%.
Recent form shows Atlético Ottawa with two losses, a win, and two more wins in their last six matches, while Forge has drawn twice and won three of their last six. In their last ten encounters, Forge has won five times, while Atlético Ottawa has secured two victories and three matches ended in draws. The probability of over 2.5 goals is 50%, and both teams scoring is projected at 55%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atlético Ottawa and Forge expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.68
Atlético Ottawa and Forge attack and defence ratings
Atlético Ottawa
Forge
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 45.6% | 2.19 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.2% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atlético Ottawa | 26.8% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Forge | 45.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 50.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 49.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.7% |
| No | 45.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 23.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 54.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.2% |
| 0-1 | 9.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.3% |
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge stats
Atlético Ottawa and Forge recent form
| Atlético Ottawa |
LLWWWL |
| Forge |
DWWWDD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atlético Ottawa and Forge season so far
Atlético Ottawa record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 5 penalties (60%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Forge record
- They have won 17 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Ottawa vs Forge head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-17 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2024-11-02 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.