Cavalry FC
vs
Supra du Quebec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Cavalry FC
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.55.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Cavalry FC is the favourite, not a value bet.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec
| Probability | Cavalry FC | Draw | Supra du Quebec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 54.9% | 21.0% | 24.1% |
| Market | 50.9% | 24.1% | 24.9% |
| Final | 51.9% | 23.3% | 24.7% |
| Edge | +1.0% | -0.8% | -0.2% |
Why Cavalry FC
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.35 vs 1.55.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -2.9% per unit staked (our 51.9% × 1.87 − 1).
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec match preview
Cavalry FC faces Supra du Quebec in a Canadian Premier League matchup on November 7, 2026. Cavalry FC has a 52% probability of winning, while Supra du Quebec stands at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Cavalry FC, with an expected goals tally of 2.35 for Cavalry and 1.55 for Supra. The model also indicates a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 75% and both teams scoring at 72%.
In terms of recent form, Cavalry FC has struggled with a record of L-W-W-D-L-L, while Supra du Quebec has been in strong form, winning their last five matches and drawing one. Historical head-to-head results show Cavalry FC with 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 win for Supra du Quebec in their last five encounters. The confidence grade for this prediction is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.90
Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec attack and defence ratings
Cavalry FC
Supra du Quebec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 51.9% | 1.93 | +1.0% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.0% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.7% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 45.1% | 2.22 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Cavalry FC | 51.9% |
| Draw | 23.3% | |
| Supra du Quebec | 24.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.0% |
| No | 28.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 48.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Cavalry FC win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.9% | |
| Loss | 45.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.7% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec stats
Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec recent form
| Cavalry FC |
LWWDLL |
| Supra du Quebec |
WWWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Cavalry FC and Supra du Quebec season so far
Cavalry FC record
- They have won 18 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 1.6 on the road.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
Supra du Quebec record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Supra du Quebec | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Cavalry FC | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 6-0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Supra du Quebec | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2026-07-29 | Cavalry FC | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Supra du Quebec | Cavalry FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Cavalry FC vs Supra du Quebec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.9%, draw 24.1%, away 24.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.68 | 3.77 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.80 | 3.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.84 | 3.85 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.68 | 3.68 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.83 | 3.66 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.40 | 3.60 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .