Forge
vs
Atlético Ottawa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Forge
2 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.97.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Forge is the favourite, not a value bet.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Forge vs Atlético Ottawa
| Probability | Forge | Draw | Atlético Ottawa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 63.3% | 21.6% | 15.1% |
| Market | 60.6% | 21.8% | 17.6% |
| Final | 61.3% | 21.7% | 17.0% |
| Edge | +0.7% | -0.0% | -0.6% |
Why Forge
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.15 vs 0.97.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 61.3% × 1.55 − 1).
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa match preview
Forge enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 61%, while Atlético Ottawa stands at 17%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-0, with an expected goals tally of 2.15 for Forge and 0.97 for Atlético Ottawa. The model also indicates a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score.
In terms of recent form, Forge has recorded two draws followed by three wins, while Atlético Ottawa has a mixed record with two losses following a win. In their last 10 encounters, Forge has secured 4 wins, with 4 matches ending in draws and Atlético Ottawa winning 2. This context suggests a competitive matchup, but Forge's current form and statistical edge may give them the advantage.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Forge and Atlético Ottawa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Forge and Atlético Ottawa attack and defence ratings
Forge
Atlético Ottawa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Semi-finals fixtures
Before and after this match
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 61.3% | 1.63 | +0.7% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% | 1.20 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 40.7% | 2.46 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Forge | 61.3% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Atlético Ottawa | 17.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.8% |
| No | 44.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 83.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 38.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Forge win | 40.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 36.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 10.2% |
| 1-1 | 10.2% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa stats
Forge and Atlético Ottawa recent form
| Forge |
DDWWWD |
| Atlético Ottawa |
DLLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Forge and Atlético Ottawa season so far
Forge record
- They have won 17 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atlético Ottawa record
- They have won 13 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 48% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-01 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
| 2026-10-17 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 3-0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-21 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-0 |
| 2025-07-12 | Atlético Ottawa | Forge | Canadian Premier League | 1-1 |
| 2025-05-13 | Forge | Atlético Ottawa | Canadian Premier League | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Forge vs Atlético Ottawa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.6%, draw 21.8%, away 17.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.49 | 4.05 | 5.23 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| BetVictor | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.25 |
| Betano | 1.55 | 4.30 | 5.10 |
| Betfair | 1.47 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.53 | 4.40 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.48 | 4.05 | 5.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.51 | 4.26 | 5.26 |
| William Hill | 1.53 | 3.75 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .