HFX Wanderers FC
vs
Supra du Quebec
Garuda Lions Prediction: Supra du Quebec
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Supra du Quebec is the favourite, not a value bet.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec overview
Garuda Lions analysis: HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec
| Probability | HFX Wanderers FC | Draw | Supra du Quebec |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 41.8% | 23.1% | 35.2% |
| Market | 23.4% | 23.7% | 52.8% |
| Final | 28.0% | 23.6% | 48.4% |
| Edge | +4.6% | -0.2% | -4.4% |
Why Supra du Quebec
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -13.8% per unit staked (our 48.4% × 1.78 − 1).
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec match preview
HFX Wanderers FC will face Supra du Quebec in a Canadian Premier League match on October 25, 2026. According to our model, HFX Wanderers FC has a 42% probability of winning, while Supra du Quebec stands at 35%, with a 23% chance of a draw. The expected goals for HFX Wanderers FC is 1.95, slightly higher than Supra du Quebec's 1.79. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 2-1 in favor of HFX Wanderers FC.
In terms of recent form, HFX Wanderers FC has recorded a mixed set of results with one win in their last six matches (L-D-D-L-W-W), while Supra du Quebec has been more consistent, winning four of their last six (W-D-W-W-L-W). Both teams are expected to score, with a 72% likelihood of both teams finding the net, and there is also a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.74
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec attack and defence ratings
HFX Wanderers FC
Supra du Quebec
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Group Stage fixtures
Before and after this match
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Supra du Quebec | 48.4% | 2.07 | -4.4% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 64.8% | 1.54 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28.0% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Supra du Quebec | 48.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% |
| No | 27.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 72.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Supra du Quebec win | 18.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.6% | |
| Loss | 64.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.1% |
| 2-1 | 8.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec stats
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec recent form
| HFX Wanderers FC |
LDDLWW |
| Supra du Quebec |
WDWWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
HFX Wanderers FC and Supra du Quebec season so far
HFX Wanderers FC record
- They have won 7 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Supra du Quebec record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-12 | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 0-2 |
| 2026-07-24 | HFX Wanderers FC | Supra du Quebec | Canadian Premier League | 2-3 |
| 2026-04-24 | Supra du Quebec | HFX Wanderers FC | Canadian Premier League | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
HFX Wanderers FC vs Supra du Quebec odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.4%, draw 23.7%, away 52.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.93 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.73 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.70 |
| Betano | 4.05 | 3.85 | 1.78 |
| Betfair | 3.80 | 4.00 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.10 | 3.95 | 1.75 |
| Marathonbet | 3.84 | 3.85 | 1.66 |
| Pinnacle | 3.91 | 3.77 | 1.75 |
| William Hill | 3.75 | 3.50 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .