Garuda Lions
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Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 23

Auda vs FK Liepaja

1 – 0 Full time

Skonto stadions, RigaReferee: V. Spasjonnikovs

Auda 48%
Draw 26%
FK Liepaja 26%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Auda vs FK Liepaja overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Auda vs FK Liepaja

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAudaDrawFK Liepaja
Model51.5%27.1%21.4%
Market46.7%26.0%27.3%
Final47.9%26.3%25.9%
Edge+4.8%+1.1%-5.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Auda

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 0.97.
  • Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Auda below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Auda ↓ / FK Liepaja → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 1 11% 13% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Auda and FK Liepaja expected goals

Auda 1.63
FK Liepaja 0.97

Total expected goals: 2.60

Auda and FK Liepaja attack and defence ratings

Auda

Attack 1.00 +0%
Defence 0.73 -27%

FK Liepaja

Attack 1.04 +4%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Auda vs FK Liepaja: result vs prediction

Auda 1 – 0 FK Liepaja

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Before and after this match

Auda vs FK Liepaja markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Auda 47.9% 2.09 +4.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 51.8% 1.93 — —
Both teams to score Yes 51.2% 1.95 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 74.1% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.5% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Auda47.9%
Draw26.3%
FK Liepaja25.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.2%
Under 2.551.8%
Both teams to scoreYes51.2%
No48.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)74.1%
12 (either side)73.7%
X2 (draw or away)52.1%
Handicap -1Auda win28.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss48.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.9%
1-010.9%
2-09.8%

Auda vs FK Liepaja stats

Auda and FK Liepaja recent form

newest first
Auda WLWWWW
FK Liepaja WWLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Auda and FK Liepaja going into this match

league record before kick-off

Auda record

  • They have won 17 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
  • 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Liepaja record

  • They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Auda vs FK Liepaja head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

6Auda wins 1Draws 3FK Liepaja wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-11AudaFK LiepajaCup1-0
2026-05-22AudaFK LiepajaVirsliga3-1
2026-04-08FK LiepajaAudaVirsliga1-2
2025-10-20AudaFK LiepajaVirsliga1-2
2025-07-27FK LiepajaAudaVirsliga2-0
2025-05-24FK LiepajaAudaVirsliga0-0
2025-04-09AudaFK LiepajaVirsliga3-0
2024-10-05FK LiepajaAudaVirsliga2-1
2024-09-25AudaFK LiepajaCup3-0
2024-07-21AudaFK LiepajaVirsliga2-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Auda vs FK Liepaja odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 46.7%, draw 26.0%, away 27.3%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.80 3.65 3.65
1xBet 1.91 3.58 3.34
Bet365 1.90 3.50 3.40
BetVictor 1.95 3.60 3.40
Betano 2.00 3.40 3.15
Betfair 1.90 3.60 3.40
Dafabet 2.03 3.50 3.30
Marathonbet 1.89 3.58 3.28
Pinnacle 2.01 3.56 3.33
SBO 1.95 3.26 3.04
Superbet 2.00 3.35 3.20
Unibet 1.85 3.45 3.50
William Hill 2.00 3.30 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.95 ▲ +0.17
X 3.50 ▼ -0.20
2 3.33 ▼ -0.27

8 snapshots recorded, from .