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Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 28

FK Liepaja vs Riga

3 – 2 Full time

4′E. Oloko
6′Talisca
17′M. Badamosi
27′E. Oloko
56′S. L. Robalo PedroM. Diop
57′C. SacoIago Siqueira
58′A. Ogunniyi
62′Caio FerreiraA. Taiwo
63′Muhammed Badamosi
65′CrysthyanB. Melnis
78′Leonel Strumia
78′A. OgunniyiK. Leidsman
81′M. TonisevsReginaldo Ramires
90′A. HaidaraM. Martins
90′E. OlokoA. Leite
90′A. Taiwo

Daugavas stadionsReferee: K. Ratnieks

FK Liepaja 17%
Draw 21%
Riga 62%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FK Liepaja vs Riga overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FK Liepaja vs Riga

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFK LiepajaDrawRiga
Model26.2%25.9%48.0%
Market13.6%19.3%67.1%
Final16.7%21.0%62.3%
Edge+12.6%+6.5%-19.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Riga

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.23.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FK Liepaja ↓ / Riga → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 8% 8% 1 12% 10% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 57%
No goals 6%

FK Liepaja and Riga expected goals

FK Liepaja 1.23
Riga 1.73

Total expected goals: 2.96

FK Liepaja and Riga attack and defence ratings

FK Liepaja

Attack 0.92 -8%
Defence 0.96 -4%

Riga

Attack 1.40 +40%
Defence 0.80 -20%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FK Liepaja vs Riga: result vs prediction

FK Liepaja 3 – 2 Riga

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 28 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

FK Liepaja vs Riga markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Riga 62.3% 1.60 -19.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.7% 1.76 — —
Both teams to score Yes 59.3% 1.69 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 83.3% 1.20 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 52.0% 1.92 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FK Liepaja16.7%
Draw21.0%
Riga62.3%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%
Both teams to scoreYes59.3%
No40.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)37.7%
12 (either side)79.0%
X2 (draw or away)83.3%
Handicap -1Riga win26.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.4%
Loss52.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
1-29.5%
0-17.9%

FK Liepaja vs Riga stats

FK Liepaja and Riga recent form

newest first
FK Liepaja LWWLLW
Riga WDDDWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FK Liepaja and Riga going into this match

league record before kick-off

FK Liepaja record

  • They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
  • They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
  • They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
  • They have converted 8 of 8 penalties (100%).
  • 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Riga record

  • They have won 20 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 2.9 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 28 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
  • They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
  • 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Liepaja vs Riga head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1FK Liepaja wins 0Draws 9Riga wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-21RigaFK LiepajaVirsliga4-0
2026-05-03RigaFK LiepajaVirsliga1-0
2026-03-07FK LiepajaRigaVirsliga2-1
2025-10-03RigaFK LiepajaVirsliga3-0
2025-09-18FK LiepajaRigaCup0-4
2025-07-19FK LiepajaRigaVirsliga2-3
2025-05-19RigaFK LiepajaVirsliga2-0
2025-04-03FK LiepajaRigaVirsliga2-5
2024-09-29RigaFK LiepajaVirsliga1-0
2024-07-07FK LiepajaRigaVirsliga0-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FK Liepaja vs Riga odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 13.6%, draw 19.3%, away 67.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 7.40 4.60 1.33
1xBet 7.60 4.70 1.32
Bet365 6.25 4.50 1.33
BetVictor 7.50 5.00 1.33
Betano 6.00 4.50 1.39
Betfair 7.50 5.00 1.30
Dafabet 6.60 4.90 1.38
Marathonbet 7.30 4.70 1.31
Pinnacle 6.63 4.83 1.39
SBO 5.99 4.32 1.34
Superbet 5.90 4.65 1.37
Unibet 5.75 4.40 1.40
William Hill 7.00 4.60 1.35

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 6.63 ▲ +1.83
X 4.65 ▲ +0.58
2 1.34 ▼ -0.20

4 snapshots recorded, from .