Ogre United
vs
Rīgas FS
0 – 3 Full time
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs Rīgas FS
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | Rīgas FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.2% | 15.2% | 72.7% |
| Market | 6.8% | 12.9% | 80.3% |
| Final | 8.2% | 13.5% | 78.4% |
| Edge | +5.4% | +2.3% | -7.6% |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.09 vs 1.28.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and Rīgas FS expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.36
Ogre United and Rīgas FS attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
Rīgas FS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS: result vs prediction
Ogre United 0 – 3 Rīgas FS
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 78.4% | 1.28 | -7.6% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.9% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.8% | 1.09 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 8.2% |
| Draw | 13.5% | |
| Rīgas FS | 78.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 80.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 19.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 21.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 54.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 27.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 8.0% |
| 1-2 | 7.8% | |
| 0-3 | 6.2% |
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS stats
Ogre United and Rīgas FS recent form
| Ogre United |
LLDLWL |
| Rīgas FS |
DLWLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and Rīgas FS going into this match
Ogre United record
- They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 22 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.2 goals per game at home against 1.9 on the road.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 8 of 9 penalties (89%).
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Rīgas FS | Ogre United | Virsliga | 6-0 |
| 2026-05-02 | Ogre United | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 3-4 |
| 2026-03-06 | Rīgas FS | Ogre United | Virsliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs Rīgas FS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 6.8%, draw 12.9%, away 80.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 14.00 | 7.00 | 1.12 |
| Unibet | 12.50 | 7.00 | 1.13 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
4 snapshots recorded, from .