Tukums
vs
Ogre United
2 – 1 Full time
| 34′ | M. Kalnins | ||
| 54′ | R. Melkis | ||
| 57′ | M. Stals | ||
| 60′ | R. MelkisD. Valmiers | ||
| 60′ | M. StalsK. Klavins | ||
| 72′ | D. Vejkrigers | ||
| 75′ | N. Parfjonovs | ||
| 75′ | K. Volkovs | ||
| 75′ | A. Kudelkins | ||
| 76′ | A. MarchukV. Mashchenko | ||
| 76′ | I. PulisJ. Fokam | ||
| 78′ | T. Marusiy | ||
| 81′ | J. TobaK. Shigema | ||
| 82′ | M. DerkachE. Sprukts | ||
| 82′ | B. Samoilovs | ||
| 85′ | D. VejkrigersJ. Grinbergs | ||
| 88′ | T. Mickevics | ||
| 89′ | T. MickevicsM. Ivulans | ||
| 89′ | R. Deruzinskis | ||
| 90′ | K. Klavins |
Tukums vs Ogre United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tukums vs Ogre United
| Probability | Tukums | Draw | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 23.6% | 29.9% |
| Market | 46.7% | 25.1% | 28.2% |
| Final | 46.6% | 24.7% | 28.6% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -1.5% | +1.7% |
Why Tukums
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.96 vs 1.56.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tukums and Ogre United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Tukums and Ogre United attack and defence ratings
Tukums
Ogre United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tukums vs Ogre United: result vs prediction
Tukums 2 – 1 Ogre United
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 29 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tukums vs Ogre United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 46.6% | 2.15 | -0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.3% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 46.6% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Ogre United | 28.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.7% |
| No | 31.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 53.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tukums win | 26.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.7% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.0% |
| 2-1 | 8.9% | |
| 1-2 | 7.0% |
Tukums vs Ogre United stats
Tukums and Ogre United recent form
| Tukums |
LLLWLL |
| Ogre United |
LLLDLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tukums and Ogre United going into this match
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United record
- They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Tukums vs Ogre United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Ogre United | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-2 |
| 2026-05-07 | Tukums | Ogre United | Virsliga | 6-1 |
| 2026-03-15 | Ogre United | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tukums vs Ogre United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 48.3%, draw 24.7%, away 27.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.77 | 3.80 | 3.65 |
| 1xBet | 1.91 | 3.54 | 3.38 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 1.78 | 3.60 | 3.70 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.80 |
| Dafabet | 1.78 | 3.80 | 3.90 |
| Marathonbet | 1.89 | 3.54 | 3.32 |
| Pinnacle | 1.99 | 3.80 | 3.19 |
| Unibet | 1.78 | 3.55 | 3.70 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.40 | 3.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .