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Virsliga · Full time ·Matchday 29

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova

0 – 1 Full time

67′BambaG. Bombans
69′F. HasekA. Petersons
69′J. NovikovsG. Patika
70′M. Hasek
76′V. Lizunovs
78′R. KirssA. Glaudans
81′R. Sitjakovs
84′A. Glaudans
90′T. RatajA. Dreimanis
90′R. MelkisR. Becers
90′V. LizunovsN. Pathe
90′E. EmsisK. Skadmanis

Zemgales Olimpiskais centrs, JelgavaReferee: D. Kozlovs

FS Jelgava 51%
Draw 26%
Super Nova 23%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FS Jelgava vs Super Nova

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFS JelgavaDrawSuper Nova
Model53.5%26.2%20.4%
Market49.9%26.2%23.9%
Final50.8%26.2%23.0%
Edge+3.6%-0.0%-3.5%

Confidence: Low

Why FS Jelgava

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.98.
  • The market prices FS Jelgava below the model: +3.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FS Jelgava ↓ / Super Nova → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 1 10% 12% 2 10% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 76%
3+ goals 50%
No goals 8%

FS Jelgava and Super Nova expected goals

FS Jelgava 1.71
Super Nova 0.98

Total expected goals: 2.69

FS Jelgava and Super Nova attack and defence ratings

FS Jelgava

Attack 1.07 +7%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Super Nova

Attack 0.76 -24%
Defence 0.95 -5%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova: result vs prediction

FS Jelgava 0 – 1 Super Nova

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 29 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FS Jelgava 50.8% 1.97 +3.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 50.5% 1.98 — —
Both teams to score Yes 52.3% 1.91 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 77.0% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.5% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FS Jelgava50.8%
Draw26.2%
Super Nova23.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.550.5%
Under 2.549.5%
Both teams to scoreYes52.3%
No47.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)77.0%
12 (either side)73.8%
X2 (draw or away)49.2%
Handicap -1FS Jelgava win30.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss46.5%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.5%
1-010.5%
2-09.9%

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova stats

FS Jelgava and Super Nova recent form

newest first
FS Jelgava WWLLLL
Super Nova DDLWLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FS Jelgava and Super Nova going into this match

league record before kick-off

FS Jelgava record

  • They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 13 of 29 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.

Super Nova record

  • They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

4FS Jelgava wins 6Draws 0Super Nova wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-25Super NovaFS JelgavaVirsliga1-5
2026-05-06FS JelgavaSuper NovaVirsliga1-0
2026-03-15Super NovaFS JelgavaVirsliga1-1
2025-10-04Super NovaFS JelgavaVirsliga1-1
2025-07-20FS JelgavaSuper NovaVirsliga1-0
2025-05-21Super NovaFS JelgavaVirsliga0-0
2025-04-05FS JelgavaSuper NovaVirsliga2-1
2023-10-01Super NovaFS JelgavaVirsliga1-1
2023-07-09FS JelgavaSuper NovaVirsliga2-2
2023-05-18Super NovaFS JelgavaVirsliga2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FS Jelgava vs Super Nova odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 50.2%, draw 26.1%, away 23.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 1.82 3.45 3.82
Bet365 1.80 3.50 3.60
BetVictor 1.83 3.50 3.90
Betano 1.78 3.45 3.85
Betfair 1.67 3.70 4.50
Dafabet 1.79 3.60 4.10
Marathonbet 1.80 3.45 3.74
Pinnacle 1.85 3.57 3.90
Unibet 1.90 3.30 3.45
William Hill 1.85 3.30 3.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.83 ▼ -0.12
X 3.48 ▲ +0.13
2 3.81 ▲ +0.38

9 snapshots recorded, from .