Super Nova
vs
Tukums
1 – 0 Full time
| 61′ | R. KirssG. Bombans | ||
| 61′ | K. SkadmanisA. Glaudans | ||
| 62′ | M. DerkachR. Melkis | ||
| 69′ | BambaN. Pathe | ||
| 73′ | D. ValmiersM. Stals | ||
| 77′ | K. Romanovs | ||
| 81′ | Anmanis KasparsK. Shigema | ||
| 81′ | LeoniD. Radzenieks | ||
| 88′ | R. Reingolcs |
Super Nova vs Tukums overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs Tukums
| Probability | Super Nova | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.6% | 25.1% | 16.4% |
| Market | 44.1% | 26.7% | 29.1% |
| Final | 47.8% | 26.3% | 25.9% |
| Edge | +14.4% | -1.7% | -12.8% |
Why Super Nova
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.79 vs 0.85.
- The market prices Super Nova below the model: +14.4 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Super Nova and Tukums expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.64
Super Nova and Tukums attack and defence ratings
Super Nova
Tukums
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Super Nova vs Tukums: result vs prediction
Super Nova 1 – 0 Tukums
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Super Nova vs Tukums markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 47.8% | 2.09 | +14.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.8% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.4% | 2.41 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 47.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Tukums | 25.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.8% |
| No | 51.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 74.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Super Nova win | 34.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 41.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.9% |
| 1-0 | 11.7% | |
| 2-0 | 11.4% |
Super Nova vs Tukums stats
Super Nova and Tukums recent form
| Super Nova |
WDDLWL |
| Tukums |
WLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Super Nova and Tukums going into this match
Super Nova record
- They have won 9 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Super Nova vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Tukums | Super Nova | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2026-07-01 | Tukums | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-11 | Super Nova | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Tukums | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-28 | Tukums | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-07-06 | Super Nova | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-05-16 | Super Nova | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-03-31 | Tukums | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-2 |
| 2023-09-17 | Tukums | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2023-06-30 | Super Nova | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Super Nova vs Tukums odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.1%, draw 26.7%, away 29.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 2.05 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| 1xBet | 2.01 | 3.48 | 3.16 |
| 888Sport | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
| Bet365 | 1.95 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.50 | 3.25 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.35 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.08 | 3.45 | 3.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.99 | 3.48 | 3.10 |
| Pinnacle | 2.04 | 3.68 | 3.17 |
| SBO | 2.00 | 3.12 | 3.04 |
| Superbet | 2.07 | 3.30 | 3.15 |
| Unibet | 2.12 | 3.25 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.30 | 3.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .