Ogre United
vs
FK Liepaja
2 – 2 Full time
| 3′ | R. Sibass | ||
| 15′ | C. Torres | ||
| 29′ | V. IsajevsM. Martins | ||
| 38′ | L. Estevez Fernandez | ||
| 46′ | B. MelnisCrysthyan | ||
| 46′ | V. Sorokins | ||
| 46′ | A. HaidaraB. Almazbekov | ||
| 46′ | TaliscaK. Iljins | ||
| 50′ | R. Sibass | ||
| 60′ | K. Cudars | ||
| 62′ | J. GrinbergsA. Molotkovs | ||
| 67′ | E. Rodolphe | ||
| 68′ | J. FokamI. Pulis | ||
| 69′ | E. RodolpheD. Patijcuks | ||
| 76′ | K. CudarsA. Marchuk | ||
| 76′ | A. DoroshenkoR. Ziemelis | ||
| 79′ | E. Oloko | ||
| 90′ | E. Oloko |
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs FK Liepaja
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | FK Liepaja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.5% | 23.3% | 55.1% |
| Market | 22.1% | 22.6% | 55.3% |
| Final | 22.0% | 22.8% | 55.2% |
| Edge | -0.6% | +0.7% | -0.1% |
Why FK Liepaja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.02 vs 1.21.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and FK Liepaja expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.24
Ogre United and FK Liepaja attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
FK Liepaja
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja: result vs prediction
Ogre United 2 – 2 FK Liepaja
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 55.2% | 1.81 | -0.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.9% | 2.23 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 22.0% |
| Draw | 22.8% | |
| FK Liepaja | 55.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 62.0% |
| No | 38.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 44.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 44.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.6% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-2 | 8.0% |
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja stats
Ogre United and FK Liepaja recent form
| Ogre United |
LLLLDL |
| FK Liepaja |
DWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and FK Liepaja going into this match
Ogre United record
- They have won 3 of their 28 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 28 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
FK Liepaja record
- They have won 12 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- They have converted 9 of 9 penalties (100%).
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | FK Liepaja | Ogre United | Virsliga | 4-0 |
| 2026-05-12 | FK Liepaja | Ogre United | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2026-03-20 | Ogre United | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs FK Liepaja odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.6%, draw 22.4%, away 57.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.31 | 4.05 | 1.61 |
| Bet365 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 5.00 | 3.95 | 1.52 |
| Betfair | 5.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.30 | 1.52 |
| Marathonbet | 4.25 | 4.05 | 1.59 |
| Pinnacle | 3.98 | 4.33 | 1.68 |
| Superbet | 4.90 | 4.10 | 1.50 |
| Unibet | 5.00 | 4.00 | 1.50 |
| William Hill | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .