FK Liepaja
vs
BFC Daugavpils
0 – 0 Full time
| 34′ | Talisca | ||
| 46′ | B. MelnisV. Sorokins | ||
| 50′ | M. Martins | ||
| 64′ | M. MartinsK. Iljins | ||
| 64′ | B. AlmazbekovA. Haidara | ||
| 80′ | A. KorobenkoCrysthyan | ||
| 86′ | D. PatijcuksI. Mushindi | ||
| 89′ | E. PinaskinsD. Ayebadiepreye | ||
| 90′ | E. Ivanovs |
FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils
| Probability | FK Liepaja | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.7% | 32.2% | 29.1% |
| Market | 46.0% | 26.4% | 27.6% |
| Final | 44.2% | 27.8% | 28.0% |
| Edge | -7.3% | +5.8% | +1.5% |
Why FK Liepaja
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings
FK Liepaja
BFC Daugavpils
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils: result vs prediction
FK Liepaja 0 – 0 BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 44.2% | 2.26 | -7.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.2% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.1% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.3% | 1.63 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 44.2% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 28.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.9% |
| No | 56.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 72.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win | 16.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.8% | |
| Loss | 61.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.7% |
| 0-0 | 13.2% | |
| 1-0 | 12.5% |
FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils stats
FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils recent form
| FK Liepaja |
DDWLWW |
| BFC Daugavpils |
LDLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Liepaja and BFC Daugavpils going into this match
FK Liepaja record
- They have won 12 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-17 | FK Liepaja | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-03 | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-11-02 | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | Cup | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | FK Liepaja | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-13 | FK Liepaja | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-19 | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 4-2 |
| 2024-11-09 | FK Liepaja | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 3-3 |
| 2024-08-24 | BFC Daugavpils | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FK Liepaja vs BFC Daugavpils odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 46.0%, draw 26.4%, away 27.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.95 | 3.38 | 3.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.90 | 3.50 | 3.40 |
| BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.30 |
| Betano | 2.02 | 3.40 | 3.10 |
| Betfair | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.93 | 3.38 | 3.24 |
| Pinnacle | 2.00 | 3.62 | 3.30 |
| SBO | 1.96 | 3.16 | 2.92 |
| William Hill | 1.95 | 3.30 | 3.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .