Ogre United
vs
BFC Daugavpils
Garuda Lions Prediction: BFC Daugavpils
0 β 1 Predicted score Β· 14% model probability
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.4% | 30.8% | 46.8% |
| Market | 21.4% | 24.3% | 54.2% |
| Final | 21.7% | 25.9% | 52.4% |
| Edge | +1.0% | +6.5% | -7.5% |
Why BFC Daugavpils
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.84.
Best available price on the pick: 1.75, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils match preview
Ogre United faces BFC Daugavpils in the Virsliga, with kickoff scheduled for October 11, 2026. The model indicates a 22% chance of an Ogre United victory, while BFC Daugavpils holds a stronger 47% probability of winning. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 14% likelihood. Expected goals suggest Ogre United will generate 0.84, compared to BFC Daugavpils' 1.33.
In terms of recent form, Ogre United has struggled, recording one win and five losses in their last six matches, while BFC Daugavpils has managed to secure one win, with three draws and two losses in the same period. Historically, BFC Daugavpils has dominated their recent encounters, winning all three of the last matches against Ogre United.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 52.4% | 1.91 | -7.5% | 1.75 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.2% | 1.58 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | 1.28 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.2% | 1.88 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 21.7% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 52.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 47.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 78.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win | 22.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 53.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils stats
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils recent form
| Ogre United |
WLDLLL |
| BFC Daugavpils |
DLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils season so far
Ogre United record
- They have won 3 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 10 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 30 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 0-4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-07 | BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | Virsliga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 21.4%, draw 24.3%, away 54.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.26 | 3.68 | 1.66 |
| Bet365 | 4.20 | 3.80 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 3.95 | 3.55 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.50 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
| Dafabet | 4.00 | 3.65 | 1.73 |
| Marathonbet | 4.15 | 3.68 | 1.64 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .