Ogre United
vs
BFC Daugavpils
1 – 2 Full time
| 3′ | E. Ivanovs | ||
| 23′ | A. Traore | ||
| 31′ | J. Fokam | ||
| 55′ | A. Doroshenko | ||
| 58′ | A. Traore | ||
| 63′ | J. FokamM. Pacepko | ||
| 63′ | A. DoroshenkoT. Marusiy | ||
| 66′ | W. MukwelleZ. Ouled-Haj-M'hand | ||
| 68′ | R. Skrebels | ||
| 74′ | I. PulisA. Marchuk | ||
| 84′ | A. Molotkovs | ||
| 85′ | A. KudelkinsR. Ziemelis | ||
| 85′ | D. KivindaD. Ayebadiepreye | ||
| 85′ | L. Estevez FernandezM. Ivulans |
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | BFC Daugavpils |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.3% | 30.8% | 46.9% |
| Market | 23.4% | 23.5% | 53.1% |
| Final | 23.1% | 25.3% | 51.5% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +1.8% | -1.5% |
Why BFC Daugavpils
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.33 vs 0.84.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.17
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils: result vs prediction
Ogre United 1 – 2 BFC Daugavpils
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✓ Correct |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | BFC Daugavpils | 51.5% | 1.94 | -1.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 63.1% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.9% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 23.1% |
| Draw | 25.3% | |
| BFC Daugavpils | 51.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 36.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 63.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.0% |
| No | 57.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | BFC Daugavpils win | 22.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 53.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.0% |
| 0-1 | 13.9% | |
| 0-0 | 12.7% |
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils stats
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils recent form
| Ogre United |
WLDLLL |
| BFC Daugavpils |
DLDLDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and BFC Daugavpils going into this match
Ogre United record
- They have won 4 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
BFC Daugavpils record
- They have won 10 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-14 | BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | Cup | 3-1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Ogre United | BFC Daugavpils | Virsliga | 0-4 |
| 2026-05-21 | BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-07 | BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | Virsliga | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs BFC Daugavpils odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.4%, draw 23.5%, away 53.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.01 | 3.75 | 1.69 |
| Bet365 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.73 |
| Betano | 3.70 | 3.70 | 1.75 |
| Betfair | 4.00 | 4.00 | 1.65 |
| Dafabet | 3.85 | 3.95 | 1.77 |
| Marathonbet | 3.92 | 3.75 | 1.67 |
| Pinnacle | 3.97 | 3.96 | 1.74 |
| William Hill | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.73 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .