Ogre United
vs
Super Nova
1 – 0 Full time
| 45′ | K. Cudars | ||
| 46′ | N. PatheV. Lizunovs | ||
| 46′ | I. NdiayeK. Romanovs | ||
| 62′ | J. FokamA. Marchuk | ||
| 62′ | M. IvulansI. Pulis | ||
| 64′ | BambaA. Glaudans | ||
| 69′ | K. GulbisV. Mashchenko | ||
| 73′ | E. Emsis | ||
| 77′ | R. KirssM. Tihonovics | ||
| 87′ | A. Doroshenko | ||
| 90′ | L. Estevez FernandezR. Ziemelis | ||
| 90′ | A. DoroshenkoT. Marusiy |
Ogre United vs Super Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs Super Nova
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 28.8% | 30.3% | 40.9% |
| Market | 29.9% | 26.8% | 43.3% |
| Final | 29.6% | 27.7% | 42.7% |
| Edge | -1.1% | +3.5% | -2.4% |
Why Super Nova
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and Super Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Ogre United and Super Nova attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
Super Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Ogre United vs Super Nova: result vs prediction
Ogre United 1 – 0 Super Nova
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs Super Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 42.7% | 2.34 | -2.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 29.6% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Super Nova | 42.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.7% |
| No | 51.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 57.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Super Nova win | 19.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.1% | |
| 0-0 | 10.8% |
Ogre United vs Super Nova stats
Ogre United and Super Nova recent form
| Ogre United |
LDLLLL |
| Super Nova |
LWWDDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and Super Nova going into this match
Ogre United record
- They have won 3 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 30 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
Super Nova record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 35% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 5 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Super Nova | Ogre United | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-05-16 | Super Nova | Ogre United | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-03 | Ogre United | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-10 | Super Nova | Ogre United | 1. Liga | 3-0 |
| 2024-07-27 | Ogre United | Super Nova | 1. Liga | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ogre United vs Super Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.9%, draw 26.8%, away 43.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.08 | 3.32 | 2.07 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.00 | 3.35 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Marathonbet | 3.00 | 3.32 | 2.05 |
| Pinnacle | 3.13 | 3.46 | 2.13 |
| SBO | 2.89 | 3.17 | 2.05 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.20 | 2.10 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .