Tukums
vs
Grobiņa
1 – 1 Full time
| 26′ | M. Corryn | ||
| 34′ | R. ReingolcsR. Melkis | ||
| 45′ | R. Deruzinskis | ||
| 52′ | I. TyshchenkoM. Sidorovs | ||
| 53′ | Dodo | ||
| 62′ | D. DobrecovsG. Kluskins | ||
| 66′ | H. Joksts | ||
| 68′ | J. TobaK. Shigema | ||
| 68′ | D. ValmiersE. Sprukts | ||
| 79′ | M. Sidorovs | ||
| 79′ | H. JokstsM. Stals | ||
| 79′ | K. VolkovsM. Susts | ||
| 82′ | M. CorrynA. Puzirevskis | ||
| 90′ | B. Samoilovs |
Tukums vs Grobiņa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tukums vs Grobiņa
| Probability | Tukums | Draw | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.4% | 30.2% | 26.3% |
| Market | 37.3% | 28.5% | 34.2% |
| Final | 38.9% | 28.9% | 32.2% |
| Edge | +6.1% | +1.8% | -7.9% |
Why Tukums
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.34 vs 0.99.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Tukums below the model: +6.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tukums and Grobiņa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.33
Tukums and Grobiņa attack and defence ratings
Tukums
Grobiņa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Tukums vs Grobiņa: result vs prediction
Tukums 1 – 1 Grobiņa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 31 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tukums vs Grobiņa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 38.9% | 2.57 | +6.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.9% | 1.70 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.1% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 56.5% | 1.77 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 38.9% |
| Draw | 28.9% | |
| Grobiņa | 32.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 47.6% |
| No | 52.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 61.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Tukums win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 56.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.2% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | |
| 0-0 | 11.0% |
Tukums vs Grobiņa stats
Tukums and Grobiņa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tukums and Grobiņa going into this match
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 30 matches.
- 30% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa record
- They have won 5 of their 30 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 30 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 30 matches.
Tukums vs Grobiņa head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | Grobiņa | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-15 | Grobiņa | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-3 |
| 2026-04-05 | Tukums | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-10-04 | Grobiņa | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-07-21 | Tukums | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-05-21 | Grobiņa | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-04-05 | Tukums | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Grobiņa | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2024-07-08 | Grobiņa | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-16 | Tukums | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tukums vs Grobiņa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.3%, draw 28.5%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.38 | 3.12 | 2.62 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| BetVictor | 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.42 | 3.15 | 2.65 |
| Betfair | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.63 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.12 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.48 | 3.23 | 2.73 |
| SBO | 2.36 | 3.02 | 2.53 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.00 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .