Tukums
vs
Riga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Riga
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Tukums vs Riga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tukums vs Riga
| Probability | Tukums | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 17.1% | 23.7% | 59.2% |
| Market | 10.1% | 16.1% | 73.8% |
| Final | 11.9% | 18.0% | 70.2% |
| Edge | +6.9% | +7.6% | -14.6% |
Why Riga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.94 vs 0.96.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Tukums vs Riga match preview
Tukums faces Riga in the Virsliga on October 10, 2026, with model probabilities indicating a 17% chance for Tukums to win, a 24% chance for a draw, and a 59% chance for Riga to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 0-2, with a 10% probability. The expected goals for Tukums stand at 0.96, while Riga is expected to score 1.94.
In terms of recent form, Tukums has struggled, recording one draw and five losses in their last six matches. Conversely, Riga has shown stronger performance with four wins and two draws in their last six games. Historically, Tukums has not fared well against Riga, with no wins, two draws, and five losses in their last seven encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tukums and Riga expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.89
Tukums and Riga attack and defence ratings
Tukums
Riga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 32 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tukums vs Riga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 70.2% | 1.43 | -14.6% | 1.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 1.81 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 88.1% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 40.8% | 2.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 11.9% |
| Draw | 18.0% | |
| Riga | 70.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 44.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 53.7% |
| No | 46.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 29.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 82.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 88.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 36.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.2% | |
| Loss | 40.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 0-2 | 10.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Tukums vs Riga stats
Tukums and Riga recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tukums and Riga season so far
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
Riga record
- They have won 22 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 6 penalties (100%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tukums vs Riga head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-18 | Riga | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-05-20 | Tukums | Riga | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-09 | Riga | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-3 |
| 2025-10-24 | Riga | Tukums | Virsliga | 0-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Tukums | Riga | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-07-12 | Riga | Tukums | Cup | 4-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | Riga | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2025-04-13 | Tukums | Riga | Virsliga | 0-3 |
| 2024-10-27 | Riga | Tukums | Virsliga | 10-1 |
| 2024-08-04 | Tukums | Riga | Virsliga | 0-5 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tukums vs Riga odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 10.1%, draw 16.1%, away 73.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 10.90 | 6.05 | 1.17 |
| Bet365 | 8.50 | 6.00 | 1.27 |
| Betano | 7.70 | 5.00 | 1.28 |
| Betfair | 9.00 | 6.00 | 1.20 |
| Dafabet | 8.80 | 5.60 | 1.27 |
| Marathonbet | 8.90 | 5.45 | 1.21 |
| William Hill | 10.00 | 5.50 | 1.22 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .