Rīgas FS
vs
Tukums
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rīgas FS
3 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
Rīgas FS vs Tukums overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rīgas FS vs Tukums
| Probability | Rīgas FS | Draw | Tukums |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 84.6% | 11.2% | 4.3% |
| Market | 84.0% | 11.1% | 4.8% |
| Final | 84.2% | 11.1% | 4.7% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +0.0% | -0.6% |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.06 vs 0.63.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.10, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums match preview
Rīgas FS enters the match against Tukums with a strong probability of winning at 84%, reflecting their recent form of three consecutive wins and a total of five unbeaten matches. The expected goals for Rīgas FS stand at 3.06, suggesting a dominant offensive performance, while Tukums is projected to score only 0.63 goals, indicating potential difficulties in their attack.
Historically, Rīgas FS has been dominant in their encounters with Tukums, winning all seven of their last meetings without a single draw or loss for Tukums. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-0, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 71% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match, while both teams scoring is forecasted at 45%.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rīgas FS and Tukums expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.69
Rīgas FS and Tukums attack and defence ratings
Rīgas FS
Tukums
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rīgas FS vs Tukums markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 84.2% | 1.19 | +0.5% | 1.10 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.1% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.3% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 67.3% | 1.49 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 84.2% |
| Draw | 11.1% | |
| Tukums | 4.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 71.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 28.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.9% |
| No | 55.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 95.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 88.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 15.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 67.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 15.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-0 | 11.9% |
| 2-0 | 11.7% | |
| 4-0 | 9.1% |
Rīgas FS vs Tukums stats
Rīgas FS and Tukums recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rīgas FS and Tukums season so far
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 24 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 2.4 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 15 clean sheets in 31 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 31 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 31 matches.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Tukums | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Rīgas FS | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2026-04-13 | Tukums | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-10-19 | Tukums | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 2-4 |
| 2025-07-26 | Rīgas FS | Tukums | Virsliga | 6-2 |
| 2025-05-25 | Tukums | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 2-5 |
| 2025-04-09 | Rīgas FS | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Rīgas FS vs Tukums odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 84.0%, draw 11.1%, away 4.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.06 | 8.00 | 18.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.09 | 10.00 | 19.00 |
| Betano | 1.10 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| Betfair | 1.06 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.06 | 8.00 | 18.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .