Riga
vs
Super Nova
Garuda Lions Prediction: Riga
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Riga vs Super Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Riga vs Super Nova
| Probability | Riga | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.6% | 24.3% | 11.0% |
| Market | 81.2% | 13.6% | 5.1% |
| Final | 77.1% | 16.3% | 6.6% |
| Edge | -16.6% | +10.7% | +5.9% |
Why Riga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.76 vs 0.59.
Best available price on the pick: 1.16, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Riga vs Super Nova match preview
Riga is set to face Super Nova in the Virsliga on October 18, 2026. According to our model, Riga holds a 57% probability of winning, while Super Nova has a 15% chance, with a 28% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals suggest Riga will score approximately 1.51, compared to Super Nova's 0.66. The most likely scoreline is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 16%.
In terms of recent form, Riga has recorded three wins, two draws, and one loss in their last six matches, while Super Nova has achieved three wins, two losses, and one draw in the same timeframe. Historically, Riga has dominated their encounters with Super Nova, winning 9 out of the last 10 meetings, with Super Nova yet to secure a victory. The model indicates a 37% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 39% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Riga and Super Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.35
Riga and Super Nova attack and defence ratings
Riga
Super Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 33 fixtures
Before and after this match
Riga vs Super Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 77.1% | 1.30 | -16.6% | 1.16 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 61.9% | 1.62 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% | 1.07 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 38.5% | 2.60 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 77.1% |
| Draw | 16.3% | |
| Super Nova | 6.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 41.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 58.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 38.1% |
| No | 61.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 93.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 22.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 38.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 26.1% | |
| Loss | 35.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.7% |
| 2-0 | 14.7% | |
| 1-1 | 10.9% |
Riga vs Super Nova stats
Riga and Super Nova recent form
| Riga |
DWWWDD |
| Super Nova |
LWLLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Riga and Super Nova season so far
Riga record
- They have won 23 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Super Nova record
- They have won 11 of their 32 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 32 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 32 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Riga vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 1-4 |
| 2025-08-30 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 2-6 |
| 2025-06-22 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-01 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 1-5 |
| 2025-03-06 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2023-10-29 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-06 | Super Nova | Riga | Virsliga | 1-5 |
| 2023-05-31 | Riga | Super Nova | Virsliga | 5-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Riga vs Super Nova odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 80.9%, draw 13.5%, away 5.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.10 | 6.55 | 17.50 |
| Bet365 | 1.14 | 7.50 | 15.00 |
| Betano | 1.16 | 6.10 | 12.00 |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 8.50 | 17.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.13 | 6.80 | 14.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.10 | 6.55 | 17.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .