Super Nova
vs
Rīgas FS
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rīgas FS
0 – 2 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.77.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Rīgas FS is the favourite, not a value bet.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs Rīgas FS
| Probability | Super Nova | Draw | Rīgas FS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.0% | 24.1% | 61.9% |
| Market | 7.0% | 13.9% | 79.1% |
| Final | 8.8% | 16.4% | 74.8% |
| Edge | +1.8% | +2.5% | -4.3% |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.85 vs 0.77.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.18, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -11.7% per unit staked (our 74.8% × 1.18 − 1).
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS match preview
Super Nova faces Rīgas FS in the Virsliga, with the match scheduled for October 25, 2026. According to our model, Super Nova has a 14% chance of winning, while Rīgas FS is favored at 62%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 0.77 for Super Nova and 1.85 for Rīgas FS. Recent form shows Super Nova struggling with two consecutive losses and three wins in their last six matches, while Rīgas FS is in strong form, having won four of their last six games.
In terms of goal-scoring potential, there is a 49% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance that both teams will score. The head-to-head record heavily favors Rīgas FS, who have won all of the last ten encounters against Super Nova. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Super Nova and Rīgas FS expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Super Nova and Rīgas FS attack and defence ratings
Super Nova
Rīgas FS
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 34 fixtures
Before and after this match
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 74.8% | 1.34 | -4.3% | 1.18 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.6% | 1.86 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 91.2% | 1.10 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 38.1% | 2.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Super Nova | 8.8% |
| Draw | 16.4% | |
| Rīgas FS | 74.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.4% |
| No | 53.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 25.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 91.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 37.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.6% | |
| Loss | 38.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.4% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS stats
Super Nova and Rīgas FS recent form
| Super Nova |
LLWLLW |
| Rīgas FS |
WWWDWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Super Nova and Rīgas FS season so far
Super Nova record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 26 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 12 penalties (92%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-15 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 4-0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Cup | 0-1 |
| 2026-05-29 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2026-01-14 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs | 5-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-08-10 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Super Nova | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-01-11 | Rīgas FS | Super Nova | Friendlies Clubs | 7-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Super Nova vs Rīgas FS odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 7.0%, draw 13.9%, away 79.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 13.00 | 6.55 | 1.12 |
| Bet365 | 12.00 | 6.00 | 1.18 |
| BetVictor | 15.00 | 6.50 | 1.15 |
| Betano | 10.75 | 5.80 | 1.18 |
| Betfair | 14.00 | 7.00 | 1.11 |
| Dafabet | 13.00 | 7.20 | 1.15 |
| Marathonbet | 13.00 | 6.55 | 1.12 |
| Pinnacle | 13.65 | 7.78 | 1.14 |
| William Hill | 12.00 | 6.50 | 1.17 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .