FK Liepaja
vs
Super Nova
Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Liepaja
1 β 0 Predicted score Β· 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.64.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FK Liepaja vs Super Nova
| Probability | FK Liepaja | Draw | Super Nova |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 62.8% | 25.0% | 12.2% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 62.8% | 25.0% | 12.2% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why FK Liepaja
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.64.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova match preview
FK Liepaja is favored to win against Super Nova with a 58% probability, while the chances of a draw stand at 27% and Super Nova at 15%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 15%. FK Liepaja has an expected goals figure of 1.59, compared to Super Nova's 0.68, suggesting a significant disparity in offensive output.
In terms of recent form, FK Liepaja has recorded a series of draws and one win, with their last five matches resulting in D-W-L-D-D-D. Conversely, Super Nova has experienced inconsistent results, with two wins and three losses in their last five outings. The head-to-head record shows FK Liepaja with 4 wins, 1 draw, and Super Nova with 2 wins from their last 7 encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FK Liepaja and Super Nova expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.37
FK Liepaja and Super Nova attack and defence ratings
FK Liepaja
Super Nova
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 62.8% | 1.59 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 1.73 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 60.1% | 1.66 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% | 1.14 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 37.2% | 2.69 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FK Liepaja | 62.8% |
| Draw | 25.0% | |
| Super Nova | 12.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 42.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 57.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 39.9% |
| No | 60.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 37.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | FK Liepaja win | 36.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.9% | |
| Loss | 37.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 15.1% |
| 2-0 | 14.0% | |
| 1-1 | 11.4% |
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova stats
FK Liepaja and Super Nova recent form
| FK Liepaja |
DWLDDD |
| Super Nova |
LLLWLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FK Liepaja and Super Nova season so far
FK Liepaja record
- They have won 13 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 10 of 10 penalties (100%).
Super Nova record
- They have won 11 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FK Liepaja vs Super Nova head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Super Nova | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2026-06-12 | FK Liepaja | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Super Nova | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Super Nova | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2025-08-25 | FK Liepaja | Super Nova | Virsliga | 0-3 |
| 2025-06-17 | Super Nova | FK Liepaja | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-25 | FK Liepaja | Super Nova | Virsliga | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.