Garuda Lions
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Virsliga · ·Matchday 36

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja

Garuda Lions Prediction: FK Liepaja

1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.19.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — FK Liepaja is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on FK Liepaja

Grobina Stadium, Grobina

Grobiņa 23%
Draw 24%
FK Liepaja 52%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance FK Liepaja wins
52%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
95%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
61%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
10% of simulated outcomes

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGrobiņaDrawFK Liepaja
Model21.8%23.8%54.4%
Market23.7%24.7%51.5%
Final23.3%24.5%52.2%
Edge-0.5%-0.2%+0.7%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FK Liepaja

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.19.

Best available price on the pick: 2.03, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +6.1% per unit staked (our 52.2% × 2.03 − 1).

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja match preview

Grobiņa faces FK Liepaja in an upcoming Virsliga match, with the model assigning probabilities of 22% for a Grobiņa win, 24% for a draw, and 54% for an FK Liepaja victory. The expected goals for Grobiņa stand at 1.19, while FK Liepaja is projected to score 1.97. The most likely scoreline is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.

Recent form shows Grobiņa with two losses, one win, one draw, and two additional draws, while FK Liepaja has recorded two draws, one win, one loss, and two more draws. In their last seven encounters, Grobiņa has secured two wins, one draw, and FK Liepaja has achieved four wins. The model indicates a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals and both teams scoring, each at 61%.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Grobiņa ↓ / FK Liepaja → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 8% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 6% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 95%
2+ goals 83%
3+ goals 61%
No goals 5%

Grobiņa and FK Liepaja expected goals

Grobiņa 1.19
FK Liepaja 1.97

Total expected goals: 3.16

Grobiņa and FK Liepaja attack and defence ratings

Grobiņa

Attack 0.79 -21%
Defence 1.45 +45%

FK Liepaja

Attack 1.05 +5%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FK Liepaja 52.2% 1.91 +0.7% 2.03
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.1% 1.64 — —
Both teams to score Yes 60.9% 1.64 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 76.7% 1.30 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 45.6% 2.19 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Grobiņa23.3%
Draw24.5%
FK Liepaja52.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%
Both teams to scoreYes60.9%
No39.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.8%
12 (either side)75.5%
X2 (draw or away)76.7%
Handicap -1FK Liepaja win32.5%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss45.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.0%
1-29.8%
0-28.2%
Compare prices for this pick

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja stats

Grobiņa and FK Liepaja recent form

newest first
Grobiņa LLWLDD
FK Liepaja DDWLDD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Grobiņa and FK Liepaja season so far

league record

Grobiņa record

  • They have won 6 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have kept 7 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

FK Liepaja record

  • They have won 13 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 11 of 35 matches.
  • They have converted 10 of 11 penalties (91%).

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Grobiņa wins 1Draws 6FK Liepaja wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-21FK LiepajaGrobiņaVirsliga3-1
2026-06-16GrobiņaFK LiepajaVirsliga1-0
2026-04-28FK LiepajaGrobiņaVirsliga1-1
2025-09-21GrobiņaFK LiepajaVirsliga0-1
2025-06-30FK LiepajaGrobiņaVirsliga2-0
2025-05-10GrobiņaFK LiepajaVirsliga2-0
2025-03-16FK LiepajaGrobiņaVirsliga4-1
2024-10-26GrobiņaFK LiepajaVirsliga1-3
2024-08-03FK LiepajaGrobiņaVirsliga0-1
2024-05-29FK LiepajaGrobiņaVirsliga3-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Grobiņa vs FK Liepaja odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 23.7%, draw 24.7%, away 51.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.94 3.74 1.70
Bet365 3.60 3.70 1.75
Betano 3.80 3.60 1.75
Betfair 3.60 3.60 1.83
Dafabet 3.25 3.60 2.03
Marathonbet 3.85 3.74 1.68
Pinnacle 4.25 3.93 1.72
William Hill 3.80 3.50 1.75
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.80 ▲ +0.75
X 3.65 ▲ +0.09
2 1.75 ▼ -0.22

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 FK Liepaja Predicted score 1 – 2 Low Bet Now
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