FS Jelgava
vs
Ogre United
Garuda Lions Prediction: FS Jelgava
2 β 1 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.20.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β FS Jelgava is the favourite, not a value bet.
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FS Jelgava vs Ogre United
| Probability | FS Jelgava | Draw | Ogre United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 25.7% | 25.0% |
| Market | 50.6% | 24.5% | 24.8% |
| Final | 50.3% | 24.8% | 24.9% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.3% | +0.0% |
Why FS Jelgava
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.20.
Best available price on the pick: 1.80, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.4% per unit staked (our 50.3% Γ 1.80 β 1).
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United match preview
FS Jelgava faces Ogre United in a Virsliga matchup where the probabilities suggest a slight edge for the home side, with a 49% chance of victory compared to 25% for Ogre United and a 26% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals indicate FS Jelgava at 1.75 and Ogre United at 1.20, which aligns with the model's prediction of a likely scoreline of 2-1, occurring at a rate of 10%.
Recent form shows FS Jelgava struggling with five consecutive losses followed by a draw, while Ogre United has a mixed record with one win in their last six matches. The model indicates a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% probability that both teams will score, suggesting an engaging contest is on the horizon.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FS Jelgava and Ogre United expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.95
FS Jelgava and Ogre United attack and defence ratings
FS Jelgava
Ogre United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FS Jelgava | 50.3% | 1.99 | -0.3% | 1.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% | 1.77 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% | 1.70 | β | β |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FS Jelgava | 50.3% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Ogre United | 24.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.8% |
| No | 41.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | FS Jelgava win | 27.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.6% | |
| 1-0 | 8.1% |
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United stats
FS Jelgava and Ogre United recent form
| FS Jelgava |
LLLLLD |
| Ogre United |
DLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FS Jelgava and Ogre United season so far
FS Jelgava record
- They have won 8 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 17 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Ogre United record
- They have won 4 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 35 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Ogre United | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 2-3 |
| 2026-06-17 | FS Jelgava | Ogre United | Virsliga | 0-2 |
| 2026-04-27 | Ogre United | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FS Jelgava vs Ogre United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.6%, draw 24.5%, away 24.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.78 | 3.64 | 3.67 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.80 | 3.65 | 3.60 |
| Betfair | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.80 | 3.85 | 3.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.70 | 3.72 | 3.78 |
| Pinnacle | 1.80 | 3.88 | 3.88 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .