Garuda Lions
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Virsliga Β· Β·Matchday 36

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils

Garuda Lions Prediction: BFC Daugavpils

0 – 1 Predicted score Β· 15% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.75.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β€” BFC Daugavpils is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on BFC Daugavpils

Olaines Pilsetas Stadions, Olaine

Super Nova 24%
Draw 27%
BFC Daugavpils 48%

Confidence: Low  Β·  blended with market odds

Chance BFC Daugavpils wins
48%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
87%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
41%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 1
15% of simulated outcomes

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilitySuper NovaDrawBFC Daugavpils
Model19.2%30.3%50.4%
Market25.8%26.4%47.8%
Final24.2%27.4%48.4%
Edge-1.6%+1.0%+0.7%

Confidence: Low Β· Edge = Final minus Market

Why BFC Daugavpils

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.75.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded β€” the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 48.4% Γ— 1.96 βˆ’ 1).

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils match preview

Super Nova faces BFC Daugavpils in a Virsliga match on November 8, 2026. According to our model, BFC Daugavpils holds a 50% chance of winning, while Super Nova has a 19% probability, and a draw is estimated at 30%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1 in favor of BFC Daugavpils, with a 15% likelihood. Super Nova's expected goals sit at 0.75, compared to BFC Daugavpils' 1.37.

In terms of recent form, Super Nova has struggled with a record of D-L-L-L-W-L, while BFC Daugavpils has been in strong form, winning four of their last five matches, with one draw. The head-to-head record shows Super Nova with 2 wins and 5 draws against BFC Daugavpils, who has yet to secure a win in their last seven encounters.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Super Nova ↓ / BFC Daugavpils β†’ 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 15% 11% 1 8% 14% 8% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 36%
No goals 13%

Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils expected goals

Super Nova 0.75
BFC Daugavpils 1.37

Total expected goals: 2.12

Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils attack and defence ratings

Super Nova

Attack 0.77 -23%
Defence 1.14 +14%

BFC Daugavpils

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 0.59 -41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Virsliga

Before and after this match

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 BFC Daugavpils 48.4% 2.06 +0.7% 1.96
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.4% 1.55 β€” β€”
Both teams to score No 59.4% 1.68 β€” β€”
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.8% 1.32 β€” β€”
Handicap -1 Loss 49.6% 2.02 β€” β€”

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Super Nova24.2%
Draw27.4%
BFC Daugavpils48.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.6%
Under 2.564.4%
Both teams to scoreYes40.6%
No59.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.6%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)75.8%
Handicap -1BFC Daugavpils win25.2%
Push (exactly one goal)25.2%
Loss49.6%
Correct score (top 3)0-115.2%
1-113.6%
0-013.2%
Compare prices for this pick

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils stats

Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils recent form

newest first
Super Nova DLLLWL
BFC Daugavpils WWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Super Nova and BFC Daugavpils season so far

league record

Super Nova record

  • They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have kept 8 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • They have converted 5 of 5 penalties (100%).
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

BFC Daugavpils record

  • They have won 14 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 10 of 35 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Super Nova wins 5Draws 3BFC Daugavpils wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-22Super NovaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga0-0
2026-06-16BFC DaugavpilsSuper NovaVirsliga0-0
2026-04-27BFC DaugavpilsSuper NovaVirsliga0-1
2025-10-25BFC DaugavpilsSuper NovaVirsliga2-2
2025-08-02Super NovaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga1-1
2025-06-01Super NovaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga4-1
2025-04-15BFC DaugavpilsSuper NovaVirsliga1-1
2023-09-23Super NovaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga0-1
2023-07-05BFC DaugavpilsSuper NovaVirsliga2-0
2023-05-14Super NovaBFC DaugavpilsVirsliga0-4

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Super Nova vs BFC Daugavpils odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 25.8%, draw 26.4%, away 47.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.57 3.40 1.87
Bet365 3.40 3.60 1.83
Betano 3.55 3.30 1.91
Betfair 3.40 3.60 1.90
Dafabet 3.65 3.50 1.92
Marathonbet 3.48 3.40 1.85
Pinnacle 3.61 3.51 1.96
William Hill 3.50 3.25 1.91
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.52 β–Ό -0.08
X 3.45 β–Ό -0.09
2 1.90 β–² +0.10

8 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 BFC Daugavpils Predicted score 0 – 1 Low Bet Now
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