Tukums
vs
Auda
Garuda Lions Prediction: Auda
0 β 2 Predicted score Β· 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.75.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this β Auda is the favourite, not a value bet.
Tukums vs Auda overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Tukums vs Auda
| Probability | Tukums | Draw | Auda |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.9% | 23.2% | 64.0% |
| Market | 17.9% | 21.2% | 60.9% |
| Final | 16.6% | 21.7% | 61.6% |
| Edge | -1.3% | +0.5% | +0.8% |
Why Auda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.75.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.55, recorded β the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.5% per unit staked (our 61.6% Γ 1.55 β 1).
Tukums vs Auda match preview
In the upcoming Virsliga match, Tukums will face Auda, with the model indicating a 13% probability of a Tukums victory, a 23% chance of a draw, and a 64% likelihood of an Auda win. The expected goals for Tukums stand at 0.75, while Auda is projected to score 1.91. The most likely scoreline is 0-2, occurring at a 13% probability.
Recent form shows Tukums struggling with five losses and two draws in their last seven matches, while Auda has performed better with four wins, one loss, and two draws in the same span. Historically, in their last seven encounters, Tukums has won three times, and Auda has secured four victories. The model suggests a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Tukums and Auda expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.66
Tukums and Auda attack and defence ratings
Tukums
Auda
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 36 fixtures
Before and after this match
Tukums vs Auda markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auda | 61.6% | 1.62 | +0.8% | 1.55 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.3% | 1.99 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.1% | 1.85 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 83.4% | 1.20 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win | 39.5% | 2.53 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Tukums | 16.6% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Auda | 61.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.9% |
| No | 54.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 83.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win | 39.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.5% | |
| Loss | 36.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-2 | 12.8% |
| 0-1 | 12.4% | |
| 1-1 | 11.0% |
Tukums vs Auda stats
Tukums and Auda recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Tukums and Auda season so far
Tukums record
- They have won 5 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 1.6 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 35 matches.
Auda record
- They have won 21 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 35 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 35 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Tukums vs Auda head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Auda | Tukums | Virsliga | 3-0 |
| 2026-06-17 | Tukums | Auda | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2026-04-26 | Auda | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Auda | Tukums | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Tukums | Auda | Virsliga | 1-0 |
| 2025-06-13 | Tukums | Auda | Virsliga | 2-4 |
| 2025-04-18 | Auda | Tukums | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2024-11-03 | Tukums | Auda | Virsliga | 0-3 |
| 2024-10-02 | Auda | Tukums | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2024-06-02 | Tukums | Auda | Virsliga | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Tukums vs Auda odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.9%, draw 21.2%, away 60.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.49 | 4.30 | 1.44 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 4.20 | 1.53 |
| Betano | 4.85 | 4.05 | 1.53 |
| Betfair | 5.00 | 4.40 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.40 | 1.52 |
| Marathonbet | 5.25 | 4.30 | 1.43 |
| Pinnacle | 5.65 | 4.60 | 1.48 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
8 snapshots recorded, from .