Auda
vs
FS Jelgava
Garuda Lions Prediction: Auda
2 β 0 Predicted score Β· 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Auda vs FS Jelgava overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Auda vs FS Jelgava
| Probability | Auda | Draw | FS Jelgava |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 68.6% | 20.7% | 10.8% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 68.6% | 20.7% | 10.8% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Auda
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 0.73.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Auda vs FS Jelgava match preview
Auda enters this match against FS Jelgava with a strong probability of winning at 69%, while FS Jelgava has an 11% chance of victory according to our model. The expected goals suggest a significant advantage for Auda, with a forecast of 2.12 compared to FS Jelgava's 0.73. Recent form also highlights the disparity, as Auda has recorded two wins and a draw in their last five matches, while FS Jelgava has struggled with five losses and only one draw.
Historically, Auda has been dominant in their recent encounters, winning four of the last seven matchups against FS Jelgava, who has managed just one victory. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0 in favor of Auda, which aligns with a 54% probability of over 2.5 goals being scored in the match. Both teams have a 46% chance of scoring at least once.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Auda and FS Jelgava expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.85
Auda and FS Jelgava attack and defence ratings
Auda
FS Jelgava
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Auda vs FS Jelgava markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auda | 68.6% | 1.46 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% | 1.84 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.5% | 1.87 | β | β |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% | 1.12 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win | 44.9% | 2.23 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Auda | 68.6% |
| Draw | 20.7% | |
| FS Jelgava | 10.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 54.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 45.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.5% |
| No | 53.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 89.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 31.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Auda win | 44.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 31.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 13.0% |
| 1-0 | 11.4% | |
| 1-1 | 9.9% |
Auda vs FS Jelgava stats
Auda and FS Jelgava recent form
| Auda |
WLWDWD |
| FS Jelgava |
LLLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Auda and FS Jelgava season so far
Auda record
- They have won 19 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 13 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 5 penalties (80%).
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
FS Jelgava record
- They have won 8 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 16 of 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
Auda vs FS Jelgava head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | FS Jelgava | Auda | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Auda | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2026-04-21 | FS Jelgava | Auda | Virsliga | 2-3 |
| 2025-09-27 | FS Jelgava | Auda | Virsliga | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-05 | Auda | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 2-0 |
| 2025-05-15 | FS Jelgava | Auda | Virsliga | 3-1 |
| 2025-03-30 | Auda | FS Jelgava | Virsliga | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.