Rīgas FS
vs
Grobiņa
Garuda Lions Prediction: Rīgas FS
2 – 0 Predicted score · 12% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 0.64.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa
| Probability | Rīgas FS | Draw | Grobiņa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 82.2% | 12.7% | 5.1% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 82.2% | 12.7% | 5.1% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Rīgas FS
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 0.64.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa match preview
Rīgas FS enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 80%, reflecting their recent form of three wins, one draw, and two additional wins. The expected goals for Rīgas FS stand at 2.77, indicating a potent attacking threat, while Grobiņa's expected goals are significantly lower at 0.69. The most likely scoreline predicted is 2-0, with a 12% probability.
Grobiņa has shown mixed results recently, with their form consisting of one win, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. Historically, Rīgas FS has dominated their encounters, winning all seven of their last head-to-head matches against Grobiņa. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is at 67%, while both teams to score is at 47%, suggesting a potentially one-sided affair.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Rīgas FS and Grobiņa expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.52
Rīgas FS and Grobiņa attack and defence ratings
Rīgas FS
Grobiņa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 82.2% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.2% | 1.47 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.9% | 1.05 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 63.5% | 1.58 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Rīgas FS | 82.2% |
| Draw | 12.7% | |
| Grobiņa | 5.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 68.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 31.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 94.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 87.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 17.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Rīgas FS win | 63.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.7% | |
| Loss | 17.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 12.2% |
| 3-0 | 11.7% | |
| 4-0 | 8.4% |
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa stats
Rīgas FS and Grobiņa recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Rīgas FS and Grobiņa season so far
Rīgas FS record
- They have won 26 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.1 goals per game at home against 1.8 on the road.
- They have kept 17 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 8 matches.
- They have converted 11 of 12 penalties (92%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Grobiņa record
- They have won 6 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- They have failed to score in 15 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
Rīgas FS vs Grobiņa head-to-head
Last 7 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10 | Rīgas FS | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 6-1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-3 |
| 2026-04-22 | Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 0-1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Rīgas FS | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 5-0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 2-3 |
| 2025-05-31 | Rīgas FS | Grobiņa | Virsliga | 6-0 |
| 2025-04-15 | Grobiņa | Rīgas FS | Virsliga | 1-4 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.