Ogre United
vs
Riga
Garuda Lions Prediction: Riga
1 β 2 Predicted score Β· 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.03.
- RiskNo bookmaker prices recorded yet, so this pick has not been checked against the market.
Ogre United vs Riga overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ogre United vs Riga
| Probability | Ogre United | Draw | Riga |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.2% | 23.5% | 58.3% |
| Market | β | β | β |
| Final | 18.2% | 23.5% | 58.3% |
| Edge | β | β | β |
Why Riga
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.97 vs 1.03.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Ogre United vs Riga match preview
Ogre United faces Riga in the Virsliga with a challenging outlook, as the model assigns them an 18% chance of victory compared to Riga's 58%. Recent form shows Ogre United struggling with three consecutive losses, while Riga is on a strong run with four wins in their last six matches. The expected goals indicate a significant disparity, with Ogre United at 1.03 and Riga at 1.96.
The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with a 10% probability. Additionally, there is a 58% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% likelihood that both teams will score. Historically, Ogre United has not managed to secure a win against Riga in their last three encounters, further complicating their prospects in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ogre United and Riga expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.00
Ogre United and Riga attack and defence ratings
Ogre United
Riga
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 35 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ogre United vs Riga markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Riga | 58.3% | 1.72 | β | β |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% | 1.74 | β | β |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% | 1.78 | β | β |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | 1.22 | β | β |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.7% | 2.40 | β | β |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ogre United | 18.2% |
| Draw | 23.5% | |
| Riga | 58.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.2% |
| No | 43.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 41.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 81.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Riga win | 35.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 41.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.1% |
| 1-2 | 10.0% | |
| 0-2 | 9.7% |
Ogre United vs Riga stats
Ogre United and Riga recent form
| Ogre United |
LLLWLD |
| Riga |
DWDWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ogre United and Riga season so far
Ogre United record
- They have won 4 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 33 matches.
- They have converted 7 of 7 penalties (100%).
Riga record
- They have won 24 of their 33 league games this season, scoring 2.7 goals per match.
- They have kept 14 clean sheets in 33 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 6 matches.
- They have converted 6 of 7 penalties (86%).
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ogre United vs Riga head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Riga | Ogre United | Virsliga | 4-1 |
| 2026-06-13 | Ogre United | Riga | Virsliga | 1-4 |
| 2026-04-22 | Riga | Ogre United | Virsliga | 4-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.