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UEFA Europa Conference League · Full time ·League Stage - 3

Riga vs FK Jablonec

1 – 1 Full time

20′Dušan Pavlović
34′Reginaldo Ramires
46′M. PolidarG. Kuol
49′S. Nebyla
55′Maksims Tonisevs
56′Jiří Sláma
66′S. AlioumD. Soucek
66′A. RusekL. Jawo
70′M. DiopCaio Ferreira
76′D. HollyN. Okeke
78′R. AouaniC. Saco
78′Reginaldo RamiresM. Badamosi
84′J. SlamaF. Novak
87′S. Oulad M'HandS. L. Robalo Pedro

Skonto stadions, RigaReferee: V. Kopiyevsky

Riga 47%
Draw 26%
FK Jablonec 27%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

13 Shots 11
2 Shots on target 3
59 Possession % 41
5 Corners 5
17 Fouls 7
1 Offsides 0
2 Saves 1
430 Accurate passes 250

Riga vs FK Jablonec overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Riga vs FK Jablonec

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityRigaDrawFK Jablonec
Model69.5%20.1%10.4%
Market40.1%27.4%32.5%
Final47.5%25.6%27.0%
Edge+7.4%-1.8%-5.5%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Riga

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.18 vs 0.74.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Riga below our published probability: +7.4 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Riga ↓ / FK Jablonec → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 10% 2 13% 9% 3 9% 7% 4+ 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

Riga and FK Jablonec expected goals

Riga 2.18
FK Jablonec 0.74

Total expected goals: 2.91

Riga and FK Jablonec attack and defence ratings

Riga

Attack 1.13 +13%
Defence 0.76 -24%

FK Jablonec

Attack 0.81 -19%
Defence 1.17 +17%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Riga vs FK Jablonec: result vs prediction

Riga 1 – 1 FK Jablonec

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other League Stage - 3 fixtures

UEFA Europa Conference League

Before and after this match

Riga vs FK Jablonec markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Riga 47.5% 2.11 +7.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.7% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score No 52.9% 1.89 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.4% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Riga win 46.2% 2.17 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Riga47.5%
Draw25.6%
FK Jablonec27.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.7%
Under 2.544.3%
Both teams to scoreYes47.1%
No52.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)73.0%
12 (either side)74.4%
X2 (draw or away)52.5%
Handicap -1Riga win46.2%
Push (exactly one goal)23.3%
Loss30.5%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.9%
1-011.0%
1-19.6%

Riga vs FK Jablonec stats

Riga and FK Jablonec recent form

newest first
Riga DWDWDW
FK Jablonec LWDLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Riga and FK Jablonec going into this match

league record before kick-off

Riga record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

FK Jablonec record

  • They have won 4 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
  • They have kept 4 clean sheets in 8 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 60% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Riga vs FK Jablonec head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Riga vs FK Jablonec odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.1%, draw 27.4%, away 32.5%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.38 3.48 3.05
Bet365 2.38 3.50 2.80
BetVictor 2.30 3.40 2.88
Betano 2.45 3.45 2.87
Betfair 2.30 3.30 2.90
Dafabet 2.42 3.55 2.90
Marathonbet 2.29 3.35 2.94
Pinnacle 2.44 3.54 2.91
SBO 2.27 3.21 2.80
William Hill 2.30 3.20 2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.34 ▼ -0.04
X 3.42 ▲ +0.11
2 2.89 ▼ -0.06

14 snapshots recorded, from .