Atalanta
vs
Kairat Almaty
1 – 1 Full time
| 20′ | Gustavo Mendonca | ||
| 27′ | Kamaldeen Sulemana | ||
| 39′ | Relja Obrić | ||
| 46′ | K. SulemanaEderson | ||
| 53′ | M. Gual | ||
| 57′ | Gianluca Scamacca | ||
| 58′ | J. RoweN. Zalewski | ||
| 58′ | L. SamardzicC. De Ketelaere | ||
| 63′ | A. TuyakbaevO. Jukkola | ||
| 63′ | EdmilsonI. Bekbolat | ||
| 67′ | G. ScamaccaN. Krstovic | ||
| 73′ | M. GualE. Tapalov | ||
| 74′ | L. BernasconiD. Zappacosta | ||
| 82′ | G. MendonsaA. Sadybekov | ||
| 82′ | D. KasabulatO. Baybek | ||
| 82′ | N. Krstovic | ||
| 86′ | Aleksandr Mrynskiy | ||
| 88′ | Oiva Jukkola | ||
| 88′ | Ismail Bekbolat |
Match stats
| 16 | Shots | 7 |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 70 | Possession % | 30 |
| 9 | Corners | 2 |
| 15 | Fouls | 10 |
| 4 | Offsides | 0 |
| 2 | Saves | 6 |
| 633 | Accurate passes | 224 |
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty
| Probability | Atalanta | Draw | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 39.3% | 24.4% | 36.3% |
| Market | 85.3% | 10.2% | 4.5% |
| Final | 73.8% | 13.7% | 12.5% |
| Edge | -11.5% | +3.5% | +8.0% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.44
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty attack and defence ratings
Atalanta
Kairat Almaty
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty: result vs prediction
Atalanta 1 – 1 Kairat Almaty
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
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Before and after this match
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 73.8% | 1.35 | -11.5% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 60.7% | 1.65 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 73.8% |
| Draw | 13.7% | |
| Kairat Almaty | 12.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 33.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 68.4% |
| No | 31.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 86.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 26.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 21.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.3% | |
| Loss | 60.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.4% |
| 2-1 | 8.3% | |
| 1-2 | 8.0% |
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty stats
Atalanta and Kairat Almaty recent form
| Atalanta |
LDDLLW |
| Kairat Almaty |
DDLWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Atalanta vs Kairat Almaty odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 85.3%, draw 10.2%, away 4.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.11 | 10.90 | 23.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.10 | 9.00 | 21.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.08 | 9.50 | 21.00 |
| Betano | 1.12 | 8.75 | 24.00 |
| Betfair | 1.08 | 9.50 | 21.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.12 | 10.00 | 21.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.10 | 9.00 | 19.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.11 | 10.66 | 22.61 |
| SBO | 1.12 | 7.62 | 13.00 |
| William Hill | 1.10 | 9.00 | 19.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .