Monza
vs
Atalanta
Garuda Lions Prediction: Atalanta
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Atalanta is the favourite, not a value bet.
Monza vs Atalanta overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monza vs Atalanta
| Probability | Monza | Draw | Atalanta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.2% | 24.3% | 35.5% |
| Market | 28.7% | 24.9% | 46.4% |
| Final | 31.6% | 24.8% | 43.7% |
| Edge | +2.9% | -0.2% | -2.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.12, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.4% per unit staked (our 43.7% × 2.12 − 1).
Monza vs Atalanta match preview
Monza faces Atalanta in a Serie A matchup where the probabilities indicate a competitive contest. Monza has a 32% chance of winning, while Atalanta is favored at 44%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, with a 7% probability. Both teams are expected to find the net, as our model suggests a 74% likelihood for both teams to score, alongside a 74% chance for over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Monza has recorded three losses and two wins in their last five matches, while Atalanta has two draws, two losses, and one win in the same timeframe. Historically, Atalanta has dominated their recent encounters, winning all four of their last meetings against Monza. The expected goals for this match are 1.98 for Monza and 1.86 for Atalanta, indicating a closely contested game.
Monza and Atalanta team news
Monza news
Atalanta news
- I. Hien — muscle bruise
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monza and Atalanta expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.79
Monza and Atalanta attack and defence ratings
Monza
Atalanta
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monza vs Atalanta markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Atalanta | 43.7% | 2.29 | -2.7% | 2.12 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 75.2% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 68.8% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 31.6% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Atalanta | 43.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 73.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.4% |
| No | 25.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Atalanta win | 16.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 14.8% | |
| Loss | 68.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.5% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Monza vs Atalanta stats
Monza and Atalanta recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monza and Atalanta season so far
Monza record
- They have won 2 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Atalanta record
- They have won 3 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.8 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
Monza vs Atalanta head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-04 | Monza | Atalanta | Serie A | 0-4 |
| 2024-10-30 | Atalanta | Monza | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-21 | Monza | Atalanta | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-09-02 | Atalanta | Monza | Serie A | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monza vs Atalanta odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 28.9%, draw 25.4%, away 45.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.44 | 4.01 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 2.05 |
| BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.75 | 2.00 |
| Betano | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Betfair | 3.40 | 3.75 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.75 | 2.12 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.90 | 2.04 |
| Pinnacle | 3.30 | 3.95 | 2.11 |
| SBO | 2.88 | 3.33 | 2.08 |
| William Hill | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .