Bologna
vs
Monza
Garuda Lions Prediction: Bologna
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bologna is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bologna vs Monza overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Bologna vs Monza
| Probability | Bologna | Draw | Monza |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 37.2% | 27.2% | 35.6% |
| Market | 54.3% | 24.9% | 20.8% |
| Final | 50.0% | 25.5% | 24.5% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +0.6% | +3.7% |
Best available price on the pick: 1.81, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.5% per unit staked (our 50.0% × 1.81 − 1).
Bologna vs Monza match preview
Bologna faces Monza in a closely matched Serie A encounter, with our model giving Bologna a 37% chance of victory, while Monza stands at 36%. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 in favor of Bologna, occurring with an 8% probability. Both teams have shown attacking potential, as indicated by expected goals of 1.66 for Bologna and 1.62 for Monza. There is a 64% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and 67% of both teams scoring.
In terms of recent form, Bologna has recorded a mixed bag of results with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. Monza, on the other hand, has also struggled, with two wins and three losses in the same period. Historically, Bologna has had the upper hand in their last four encounters, securing two wins and two draws against Monza, who has yet to claim a victory.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Bologna and Monza expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
Bologna and Monza attack and defence ratings
Bologna
Monza
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Bologna vs Monza markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bologna | 50.0% | 2.00 | -4.3% | 1.81 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% | 1.58 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.8% | 1.59 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Bologna | 50.0% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Monza | 24.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 66.8% |
| No | 33.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Bologna win | 19.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.3% | |
| Loss | 62.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.4% | |
| 1-2 | 8.2% |
Bologna vs Monza stats
Bologna and Monza recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Bologna and Monza season so far
Bologna record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 8 matches.
Monza record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Bologna vs Monza head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-18 | Bologna | Monza | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2024-09-22 | Monza | Bologna | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-13 | Bologna | Monza | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-09-28 | Monza | Bologna | Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Bologna vs Monza odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.3%, draw 24.9%, away 20.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.81 | 3.96 | 4.74 |
| Bet365 | 1.70 | 3.70 | 4.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.75 | 4.40 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.85 | 4.55 |
| Dafabet | 1.73 | 3.85 | 4.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.76 | 3.84 | 4.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.76 | 3.79 | 4.50 |
| William Hill | 1.75 | 3.60 | 4.33 |