Monza
vs
Napoli
Garuda Lions Prediction: Napoli
1 – 2 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Napoli is the favourite, not a value bet.
Monza vs Napoli overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Monza vs Napoli
| Probability | Monza | Draw | Napoli |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 33.1% | 23.9% | 43.0% |
| Market | 24.4% | 25.5% | 50.1% |
| Final | 26.5% | 25.1% | 48.4% |
| Edge | +2.2% | -0.4% | -1.8% |
Why Napoli
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.96, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (our 48.4% × 1.96 − 1).
Monza vs Napoli match preview
Monza will face Napoli in a Serie A clash on October 28, 2026. According to our model, Monza has a 28% chance of winning, while Napoli holds a 48% probability of victory, with a 25% likelihood of a draw. The expected goals for Monza stand at 1.98, compared to Napoli's 2.14. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-2, occurring at a rate of 7%.
In terms of recent form, Monza has recorded three wins, two losses, and one draw in their last six matches, while Napoli has achieved four wins, two losses, and one draw in the same period. Additionally, our model indicates a high probability of over 2.5 goals at 78% and both teams scoring at 77%. In their last four encounters, Monza has not secured a win against Napoli, with three losses and one draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Monza and Napoli expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.90
Monza and Napoli attack and defence ratings
Monza
Napoli
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Monza vs Napoli markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Napoli | 48.4% | 2.07 | -1.8% | 1.96 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 57.0% | 1.76 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Monza | 26.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Napoli | 48.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.8% |
| No | 25.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Napoli win | 25.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.6% | |
| Loss | 57.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.2% |
| 1-2 | 8.0% | |
| 2-2 | 7.3% |
Monza vs Napoli stats
Monza and Napoli recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Monza and Napoli season so far
Monza record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They average 2.7 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Napoli record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
Monza vs Napoli head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-04-19 | Monza | Napoli | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-09-29 | Napoli | Monza | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2024-04-07 | Monza | Napoli | Serie A | 2-4 |
| 2023-12-29 | Napoli | Monza | Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Monza vs Napoli odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.3%, draw 25.6%, away 50.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.01 | 3.92 | 1.96 |
| Bet365 | 4.10 | 3.50 | 1.85 |
| BetVictor | 3.80 | 3.70 | 1.85 |
| Betano | 3.90 | 3.70 | 1.90 |
| Dafabet | 3.95 | 3.75 | 1.92 |
| Marathonbet | 3.90 | 3.80 | 1.90 |
| Pinnacle | 3.79 | 3.85 | 1.89 |
| SBO | 3.39 | 3.28 | 1.89 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.60 | 1.85 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .