Frosinone
vs
Lecce
Garuda Lions Prediction: Frosinone
2 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.78.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 48%.
Frosinone vs Lecce overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Frosinone vs Lecce
| Probability | Frosinone | Draw | Lecce |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 60.0% | 18.8% | 21.2% |
| Market | 49.6% | 25.2% | 25.3% |
| Final | 52.2% | 23.6% | 24.2% |
| Edge | +2.6% | -1.6% | -1.0% |
Why Frosinone
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.90 vs 1.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- The market prices Frosinone below our published probability: +2.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.98, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +3.4% per unit staked (our 52.2% × 1.98 − 1).
Frosinone vs Lecce match preview
Frosinone hosts Lecce in a Serie A clash, with Frosinone holding a 52% probability of winning compared to Lecce's 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1, occurring at a rate of 7%. Frosinone's expected goals stand at 2.91, while Lecce's is 1.79, indicating a potentially high-scoring match, as reflected in the model's 85% probability of over 2.5 goals and 80% for both teams to score.
In terms of recent form, Frosinone has recorded a sequence of W-L-W-D-W-D, while Lecce has struggled with W-L-L-W-L-L. The head-to-head record shows Frosinone has yet to secure a win against Lecce, with 1 draw and 1 loss in their last two encounters. The confidence grade for this match is A, suggesting a strong belief in the model's predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Frosinone and Lecce expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.69
Frosinone and Lecce attack and defence ratings
Frosinone
Lecce
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Frosinone vs Lecce markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 52.2% | 1.92 | +2.6% | 1.98 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.6% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 76.4% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win | 42.0% | 2.38 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Frosinone | 52.2% |
| Draw | 23.6% | |
| Lecce | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.6% |
| No | 20.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 47.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Frosinone win | 42.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.0% | |
| Loss | 40.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 6.9% |
| 3-1 | 6.7% | |
| 2-2 | 6.2% |
Frosinone vs Lecce stats
Frosinone and Lecce recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Frosinone and Lecce season so far
Frosinone record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
Lecce record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Frosinone vs Lecce head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-03-03 | Frosinone | Lecce | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-12-16 | Lecce | Frosinone | Serie A | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Frosinone vs Lecce odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.4%, draw 25.4%, away 25.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.97 | 3.90 | 4.00 |
| Bet365 | 1.91 | 3.60 | 3.80 |
| BetVictor | 1.87 | 3.80 | 3.60 |
| Betano | 1.98 | 3.75 | 3.65 |
| Dafabet | 1.94 | 3.80 | 3.70 |
| Marathonbet | 1.91 | 3.78 | 3.88 |
| Pinnacle | 1.88 | 3.68 | 4.05 |
| SBO | 1.91 | 3.37 | 3.23 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.50 | 3.70 |
| pinnacle | 1.92 | 3.62 | 3.93 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .