Lecce
vs
Juventus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventus
1 – 2 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.10.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lecce vs Juventus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lecce vs Juventus
| Probability | Lecce | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 12.2% | 19.0% | 68.8% |
| Market | 12.7% | 22.0% | 65.3% |
| Final | 12.6% | 21.3% | 66.2% |
| Edge | -0.1% | -0.8% | +0.9% |
Why Juventus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.64 vs 1.10.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.50, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.8% per unit staked (our 66.2% × 1.50 − 1).
Lecce vs Juventus match preview
Lecce faces Juventus in their upcoming Serie A match, with the probabilities indicating a strong advantage for the visitors. Juventus holds a 66% chance of winning, while Lecce's chances are at 13% and a draw at 21%. The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Lecce projected to score 1.11 and Juventus 2.65. Our model predicts the most likely scoreline to be 1-2, occurring with a 9% probability.
Recent form shows Lecce struggling with two wins in their last six matches, while Juventus has been more consistent, registering three wins in their last six games. In their last six encounters, Lecce has not secured a victory against Juventus, recording two draws and four losses. The model indicates a 72% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring.
Lecce and Juventus team news
Lecce news
- I. Ilic — thigh injury
- L. Coulibaly — thigh injury
- M. Berisha — thigh injury
- S. Pierotti — ankle injury
Juventus news
- A. Milik — inactive
- F. Conceicao — shoulder injury
- J. Ekhator — muscle injury
- K. Grabara — knee injury
- K. Thuram — knee injury
- K. Yildiz — foot injury
- M. Locatelli — knee injury
- Z. Celik — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lecce and Juventus expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.75
Lecce and Juventus attack and defence ratings
Lecce
Juventus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lecce vs Juventus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 66.2% | 1.51 | +0.9% | 1.50 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 87.4% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 49.2% | 2.03 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lecce | 12.6% |
| Draw | 21.3% | |
| Juventus | 66.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 72.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 27.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.5% |
| No | 36.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 33.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 87.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 49.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.6% | |
| Loss | 31.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-2 | 9.1% |
| 1-1 | 8.3% | |
| 0-2 | 8.2% |
Lecce vs Juventus stats
Lecce and Juventus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lecce and Juventus season so far
Lecce record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventus record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Lecce vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-09 | Lecce | Juventus | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Juventus | Lecce | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2025-04-12 | Juventus | Lecce | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-12-01 | Lecce | Juventus | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2024-01-21 | Lecce | Juventus | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2023-09-26 | Juventus | Lecce | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lecce vs Juventus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 12.6%, draw 22.0%, away 65.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 7.70 | 4.53 | 1.50 |
| Bet365 | 8.00 | 4.20 | 1.44 |
| BetVictor | 7.50 | 4.33 | 1.40 |
| Betano | 7.20 | 4.30 | 1.47 |
| Betfair | 7.50 | 4.50 | 1.44 |
| Dafabet | 6.80 | 4.50 | 1.48 |
| Marathonbet | 7.50 | 4.40 | 1.46 |
| Pinnacle | 7.76 | 4.24 | 1.49 |
| SBO | 6.47 | 4.01 | 1.38 |
| William Hill | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.44 |
| pinnacle | 7.79 | 4.19 | 1.45 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .