Genoa
vs
Juventus
Garuda Lions Prediction: Juventus
0 – 2 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.87.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Juventus is the favourite, not a value bet.
Genoa vs Juventus overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Genoa vs Juventus
| Probability | Genoa | Draw | Juventus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.5% | 28.1% | 55.4% |
| Market | 17.3% | 25.2% | 57.4% |
| Final | 17.1% | 25.9% | 56.9% |
| Edge | -0.2% | +0.7% | -0.5% |
Why Juventus
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.70, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -3.2% per unit staked (our 56.9% × 1.70 − 1).
Genoa vs Juventus match preview
Genoa faces Juventus in a Serie A match with Genoa having a 16% chance of winning, while Juventus holds a 58% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 13%. Additionally, the expected goals for Genoa stand at 0.75, while Juventus is projected to score 1.73.
In terms of recent form, Genoa has recorded a mixed set of results with one win and two losses in their last six matches, while Juventus has been more consistent, winning four of their last six. The head-to-head record favors Juventus, who have won four of the last six encounters, with Genoa yet to secure a win in that span.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Genoa and Juventus expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.60
Genoa and Juventus attack and defence ratings
Genoa
Juventus
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Genoa vs Juventus markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Juventus | 56.9% | 1.76 | -0.5% | 1.70 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.8% | 1.93 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.6% | 2.24 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Genoa | 17.1% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| Juventus | 56.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.2% |
| No | 49.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 43.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Juventus win | 32.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 44.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 0-2 | 11.1% | |
| 0-1 | 10.6% |
Genoa vs Juventus stats
Genoa and Juventus recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Genoa and Juventus season so far
Genoa record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Juventus record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 6 matches.
Genoa vs Juventus head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-06 | Juventus | Genoa | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-08-31 | Genoa | Juventus | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-29 | Juventus | Genoa | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-09-28 | Genoa | Juventus | Serie A | 0-3 |
| 2024-03-17 | Juventus | Genoa | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2023-12-15 | Genoa | Juventus | Serie A | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Genoa vs Juventus odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 17.3%, draw 25.5%, away 57.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.61 | 4.01 | 1.70 |
| Bet365 | 5.50 | 3.60 | 1.65 |
| BetVictor | 5.50 | 3.70 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 5.40 | 3.70 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 5.40 | 3.85 | 1.68 |
| Marathonbet | 5.45 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Pinnacle | 5.59 | 3.81 | 1.63 |
| SBO | 4.82 | 3.47 | 1.58 |
| William Hill | 5.00 | 3.60 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .