Sassuolo
vs
Lazio
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lazio
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lazio is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sassuolo vs Lazio overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sassuolo vs Lazio
| Probability | Sassuolo | Draw | Lazio |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 43.2% | 25.9% | 30.9% |
| Market | 32.9% | 27.4% | 39.6% |
| Final | 35.5% | 27.0% | 37.5% |
| Edge | +2.6% | -0.4% | -2.2% |
Why Lazio
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.2% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.53 − 1).
Sassuolo vs Lazio match preview
Sassuolo faces Lazio in a Serie A matchup with both teams showing contrasting recent form. Sassuolo has recorded one win, two draws, and three losses in their last six matches, while Lazio has been in strong form, winning five of their last six games and drawing one. The probabilities suggest a closely contested match, with Sassuolo at 36% to win, Lazio at 37%, and a draw at 27%.
The expected goals indicate Sassuolo at 1.89 and Lazio at 1.59, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring game, with our model predicting over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams to score at 69%. The most likely scoreline is 1-2 in favor of Lazio, reflecting their recent success against Sassuolo, who has won only once in their last four head-to-head encounters.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sassuolo and Lazio expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.47
Sassuolo and Lazio attack and defence ratings
Sassuolo
Lazio
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sassuolo vs Lazio markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 37.5% | 2.67 | -2.2% | 2.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% | 1.48 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% | 1.44 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.1% | 1.45 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 35.5% |
| Draw | 27.0% | |
| Lazio | 37.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 32.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 69.3% |
| No | 30.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 62.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win | 15.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 69.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 8.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Sassuolo vs Lazio stats
Sassuolo and Lazio recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sassuolo and Lazio season so far
Sassuolo record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Lazio record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Sassuolo vs Lazio head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-09 | Lazio | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2025-09-14 | Sassuolo | Lazio | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2024-05-26 | Lazio | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Sassuolo | Lazio | Serie A | 0-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sassuolo vs Lazio odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.9%, draw 27.6%, away 39.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.96 | 3.54 | 2.53 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.35 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.30 |
| Betano | 2.87 | 3.55 | 2.40 |
| Dafabet | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.43 |
| Marathonbet | 2.88 | 3.44 | 2.46 |
| Pinnacle | 2.98 | 3.37 | 2.40 |
| SBO | 2.62 | 3.21 | 2.29 |
| William Hill | 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .