Lazio
vs
Cagliari
Garuda Lions Prediction: Lazio
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.30.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Lazio is the favourite, not a value bet.
Lazio vs Cagliari overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Lazio vs Cagliari
| Probability | Lazio | Draw | Cagliari |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 47.8% | 27.1% | 25.2% |
| Market | 60.4% | 23.8% | 15.8% |
| Final | 57.2% | 24.6% | 18.2% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +0.8% | +2.3% |
Why Lazio
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.66, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.0% per unit staked (our 57.2% × 1.66 − 1).
Lazio vs Cagliari match preview
Lazio is favored to win against Cagliari with a probability of 48%, while the chances of a draw stand at 27% and Cagliari at 25%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 2-1 in favor of Lazio, which has a 10% likelihood. The expected goals for Lazio is 1.83, compared to Cagliari's 1.29, indicating a stronger offensive performance from the home side.
In terms of recent form, Lazio has recorded four wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Cagliari has two losses, one draw, and three wins in the same period. The head-to-head record also favors Lazio, with five wins and one draw from their last six encounters against Cagliari, who has yet to secure a victory in this matchup. The model indicates a 60% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Lazio and Cagliari expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.12
Lazio and Cagliari attack and defence ratings
Lazio
Cagliari
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Lazio vs Cagliari markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 57.2% | 1.75 | -3.2% | 1.66 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% | 1.66 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% | 1.59 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Lazio | 57.2% |
| Draw | 24.6% | |
| Cagliari | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 60.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 39.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.1% |
| No | 36.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Lazio win | 27.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 52.2% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.5% |
| 2-1 | 9.5% | |
| 2-0 | 7.3% |
Lazio vs Cagliari stats
Lazio and Cagliari recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Lazio and Cagliari season so far
Lazio record
- They have won 6 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Cagliari record
- They have won 4 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
Lazio vs Cagliari head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-21 | Cagliari | Lazio | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Lazio | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-02-03 | Cagliari | Lazio | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-11-04 | Lazio | Cagliari | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2024-02-10 | Cagliari | Lazio | Serie A | 1-3 |
| 2023-12-02 | Lazio | Cagliari | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Lazio vs Cagliari odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.4%, draw 23.8%, away 15.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.66 | 4.06 | 6.02 |
| Bet365 | 1.48 | 4.00 | 6.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.53 | 3.90 | 6.00 |
| Betano | 1.57 | 4.00 | 6.20 |
| Dafabet | 1.54 | 4.10 | 6.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.61 | 3.94 | 5.85 |
| Pinnacle | 1.58 | 4.00 | 5.73 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.00 |