Udinese
vs
Roma
Garuda Lions Prediction: Roma
1 – 3 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.26 vs 1.38.
- RiskThe other two outcomes still add up to 38%.
Udinese vs Roma overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Udinese vs Roma
| Probability | Udinese | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 11.8% | 15.2% | 73.0% |
| Market | 18.9% | 22.9% | 58.2% |
| Final | 17.1% | 21.0% | 61.9% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -1.9% | +3.7% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.26 vs 1.38.
- Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Roma below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 1.69, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +4.6% per unit staked (our 61.9% × 1.69 − 1).
Udinese vs Roma match preview
Udinese faces Roma in their upcoming Serie A clash, with the match set to kick off on October 31, 2026. According to our model, Udinese has a 14% chance of winning, while Roma is favored with a 69% probability. The most likely scoreline is predicted to be 1-3 in favor of Roma, with an 82% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 74% likelihood that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Udinese struggling with five consecutive losses, followed by a win, while Roma has a mixed record with two wins, two draws, and a loss in their last five matches. In their last six encounters, Roma has dominated with five victories compared to Udinese's single win. The expected goals for this match are 1.44 for Udinese and 3.04 for Roma, indicating a significant offensive advantage for the visitors.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Udinese and Roma expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.64
Udinese and Roma attack and defence ratings
Udinese
Roma
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Udinese vs Roma markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 61.9% | 1.62 | +3.7% | 1.69 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.2% | 1.19 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 55.8% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Udinese | 17.1% |
| Draw | 21.0% | |
| Roma | 61.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 84.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 15.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.9% |
| No | 27.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 38.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 79.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 82.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 55.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.2% | |
| Loss | 27.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-3 | 7.7% |
| 1-2 | 7.1% | |
| 1-4 | 6.3% |
Udinese vs Roma stats
Udinese and Roma recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Udinese and Roma season so far
Udinese record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game on the road against 0.5 at home.
Roma record
- They have won 5 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.5 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 7 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Udinese vs Roma head-to-head
Last 6 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-02 | Udinese | Roma | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2025-11-09 | Roma | Udinese | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-01-26 | Udinese | Roma | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2024-09-22 | Roma | Udinese | Serie A | 3-0 |
| 2024-04-14 | Udinese | Roma | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-11-26 | Roma | Udinese | Serie A | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Udinese vs Roma odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 18.9%, draw 22.9%, away 58.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 5.30 | 4.27 | 1.69 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.50 |
| BetVictor | 4.80 | 4.00 | 1.62 |
| Betano | 4.90 | 4.15 | 1.65 |
| Dafabet | 5.20 | 4.20 | 1.61 |
| Marathonbet | 5.15 | 4.15 | 1.64 |
| Pinnacle | 4.78 | 4.13 | 1.66 |
| William Hill | 4.80 | 3.90 | 1.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .