Sassuolo
vs
Fiorentina
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sassuolo
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sassuolo vs Fiorentina
| Probability | Sassuolo | Draw | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.1% | 24.2% | 35.7% |
| Market | 36.6% | 26.8% | 36.6% |
| Final | 37.5% | 26.2% | 36.4% |
| Edge | +0.9% | -0.6% | -0.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.69, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +0.8% per unit staked (our 37.5% × 2.69 − 1).
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina match preview
Sassuolo and Fiorentina are set to clash in Serie A, with Sassuolo holding a 40% probability of winning compared to Fiorentina's 35%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Sassuolo, which has an 8% likelihood. Both teams show a strong tendency to score, with a 75% chance of both teams finding the net, and the model suggests a 74% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of recent form, Sassuolo has recorded two losses, one draw, and two wins in their last five matches, while Fiorentina has struggled with three losses, one draw, and two wins. Historically, in their last four encounters, Sassuolo has secured two wins, Fiorentina one, and there has been one draw, indicating a competitive matchup ahead.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sassuolo and Fiorentina expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.86
Sassuolo and Fiorentina attack and defence ratings
Sassuolo
Fiorentina
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 10 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 37.5% | 2.67 | +0.9% | 2.69 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.8% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.9% | 1.67 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sassuolo | 37.5% |
| Draw | 26.2% | |
| Fiorentina | 36.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 26.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.5% |
| No | 25.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 62.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sassuolo win | 23.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 17.1% | |
| Loss | 59.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-1 | 7.8% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina stats
Sassuolo and Fiorentina recent form
| Sassuolo |
LLDLWD |
| Fiorentina |
LLLDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sassuolo and Fiorentina season so far
Sassuolo record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.5 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Fiorentina record
- They have won 1 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game on the road against 0.8 at home.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-26 | Fiorentina | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-0 |
| 2025-12-06 | Sassuolo | Fiorentina | Serie A | 3-1 |
| 2024-04-28 | Fiorentina | Sassuolo | Serie A | 5-1 |
| 2024-01-06 | Sassuolo | Fiorentina | Serie A | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sassuolo vs Fiorentina odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.6%, draw 26.8%, away 36.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.69 | 3.66 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.50 | 2.55 |
| Betano | 2.62 | 3.55 | 2.57 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.55 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.61 | 3.55 | 2.62 |
| Pinnacle | 2.58 | 3.52 | 2.64 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.50 |