Roma
vs
Sassuolo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Roma
3 – 1 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.99 vs 1.89.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Roma is the favourite, not a value bet.
Roma vs Sassuolo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Roma vs Sassuolo
| Probability | Roma | Draw | Sassuolo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 73.4% | 13.7% | 12.9% |
| Market | 70.9% | 17.2% | 11.9% |
| Final | 71.5% | 16.4% | 12.1% |
| Edge | +0.6% | -0.9% | +0.2% |
Why Roma
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 3.99 vs 1.89.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.6% per unit staked (our 71.5% × 1.32 − 1).
Roma vs Sassuolo match preview
Roma is positioned strongly ahead of their match against Sassuolo, with a 67% probability of victory according to our model. Their recent form shows a solid performance with four wins in their last five matches, while Sassuolo has struggled, recording three losses in their last four games. The expected goals for Roma stand at 3.66, compared to Sassuolo's 1.69, suggesting a significant offensive advantage for the home side.
The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 3-1, occurring with a 7% probability. Furthermore, there is a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals at 90% and both teams scoring at 80%. Historically, Roma has dominated this matchup, winning all four of their last encounters against Sassuolo.
Roma and Sassuolo team news
Roma news
Sassuolo news
- D. Boloca — muscle bruise
- E. Pieragnolo — jumpers knee
- Fali Candé — jumpers knee
- I. Koné — broken leg
- Y. Paz — jumpers knee
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Roma and Sassuolo expected goals
Total expected goals: 5.88
Roma and Sassuolo attack and defence ratings
Roma
Sassuolo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 11 fixtures
Before and after this match
Roma vs Sassuolo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 71.5% | 1.40 | +0.6% | 1.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.2% | 1.11 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.9% | 1.25 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% | 1.14 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Roma | 71.5% |
| Draw | 16.4% | |
| Sassuolo | 12.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 90.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 9.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 79.9% |
| No | 20.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 87.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 83.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 28.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Roma win | 59.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 15.2% | |
| Loss | 25.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 3-1 | 6.6% |
| 4-1 | 6.0% | |
| 3-2 | 5.5% |
Roma vs Sassuolo stats
Roma and Sassuolo recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Roma and Sassuolo season so far
Roma record
- They have won 7 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
Sassuolo record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Roma vs Sassuolo head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-10 | Roma | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-26 | Sassuolo | Roma | Serie A | 0-1 |
| 2024-03-17 | Roma | Sassuolo | Serie A | 1-0 |
| 2023-12-03 | Sassuolo | Roma | Serie A | 1-2 |
| 2023-03-12 | Roma | Sassuolo | Serie A | 3-4 |
| 2022-11-09 | Sassuolo | Roma | Serie A | 1-1 |
| 2022-02-13 | Sassuolo | Roma | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2021-09-12 | Roma | Sassuolo | Serie A | 2-1 |
| 2021-04-03 | Sassuolo | Roma | Serie A | 2-2 |
| 2020-12-06 | Roma | Sassuolo | Serie A | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Roma vs Sassuolo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.5%, draw 15.9%, away 10.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.32 | 6.40 | 9.75 |
| Bet365 | 1.30 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.29 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Betano | 1.31 | 5.80 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.29 | 6.00 | 9.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.30 | 6.40 | 8.80 |
| Marathonbet | 1.30 | 6.30 | 9.60 |
| Pinnacle | 1.29 | 6.41 | 9.51 |
| SBO | 1.26 | 5.32 | 7.05 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.50 | 8.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .