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Serie A · ·Matchday 11

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna

Garuda Lions Prediction: Bologna

1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability

  • WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Bologna is the favourite, not a value bet.
Bet on Bologna

Ennio Tardini, ParmaReferee: Luca Zufferli

Parma Calcio 1913 21%
Draw 27%
Bologna 53%

Confidence: High  ·  blended with market odds

Chance Bologna wins
53%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
94%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
61%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
1 – 2
10% of simulated outcomes

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityParma Calcio 1913DrawBologna
Model19.5%25.3%55.1%
Market21.2%27.1%51.8%
Final20.8%26.6%52.6%
Edge-0.4%-0.4%+0.8%

Confidence: High · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Bologna

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.81 vs 1.39.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (our 52.6% × 1.89 − 1).

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna match preview

Parma Calcio 1913 faces Bologna in a Serie A matchup with kickoff scheduled for November 7, 2026. According to our model, the probabilities for the outcome show Parma Calcio 1913 at 25%, a draw at 27%, and Bologna leading at 48%. The expected goals for the teams are 1.16 for Parma and 2.02 for Bologna, suggesting a competitive match. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%.

In terms of recent form, Parma Calcio 1913 has struggled with a record of D-L-L-L-W-L, while Bologna has performed well, winning four of their last six matches. The head-to-head record in the last five encounters shows an even split, with both teams securing two wins and one draw. Our model indicates a 61% likelihood for over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Parma Calcio 1 ↓ / Bologna → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 1 12% 9% 2 7% 6% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 85%
3+ goals 62%
No goals 6%

Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna expected goals

Parma Calcio 1913 1.39
Bologna 1.81

Total expected goals: 3.20

Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna attack and defence ratings

Parma Calcio 1913

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.19 +19%

Bologna

Attack 1.23 +23%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 11 fixtures

Serie A

Before and after this match

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Bologna 52.6% 1.90 +0.8% 1.89
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 61.4% 1.63 — —
Both teams to score Yes 61.4% 1.63 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 79.2% 1.26 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.7% 1.83 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Parma Calcio 191320.8%
Draw26.6%
Bologna52.6%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.561.4%
Under 2.538.6%
Both teams to scoreYes61.4%
No38.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)47.4%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)79.2%
Handicap -1Bologna win25.9%
Push (exactly one goal)19.4%
Loss54.7%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.7%
1-29.8%
0-28.5%
Compare prices for this pick

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna stats

Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna recent form

newest first
Parma Calcio 1913 WDLLLW
Bologna WWWLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Parma Calcio 1913 and Bologna season so far

league record

Parma Calcio 1913 record

  • They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 5 of 10 matches.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Bologna record

  • They have won 4 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 10 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Parma Calcio 1913 wins 3Draws 5Bologna wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-08BolognaParma Calcio 1913Serie A0-1
2025-12-04BolognaParma Calcio 1913Coppa Italia2-1
2025-11-02Parma Calcio 1913BolognaSerie A1-3
2025-02-22Parma Calcio 1913BolognaSerie A2-0
2024-10-06BolognaParma Calcio 1913Serie A0-0
2021-02-07Parma Calcio 1913BolognaSerie A0-3
2020-09-28BolognaParma Calcio 1913Serie A4-1
2020-07-12Parma Calcio 1913BolognaSerie A2-2
2019-11-24BolognaParma Calcio 1913Serie A2-2
2019-05-13BolognaParma Calcio 1913Serie A4-1

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Parma Calcio 1913 vs Bologna odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 21.2%, draw 27.2%, away 51.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 4.63 3.68 1.89
Bet365 4.50 3.50 1.83
BetVictor 4.40 3.50 1.83
Betano 4.45 3.45 1.87
Betfair 4.60 3.40 1.85
Dafabet 4.50 3.55 1.87
Marathonbet 4.50 3.58 1.84
Pinnacle 4.55 3.57 1.88
SBO 3.87 3.14 1.82
William Hill 4.20 3.40 1.80
Find the best place to bet

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 4.50 ▲ +0.79
X 3.50 ▼ -0.10
2 1.85 ▼ -0.28

14 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot 2 Bologna Predicted score 1 – 2 High Bet Now
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